The School of Odds
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Derry City v Dundalk

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 18:45 UTC

Final: Derry City 2–1 Dundalk

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Derry City (Local)

Prediction 55.67%1.80fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -4.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.18%55.63%55.82%57.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.671.671.7465.79%59.96%59.88%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dundalk (Visit)

Prediction 21.13%4.73fair odd
EV -0.681%
Edge -0.145%
Kelly -0.184%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.35%21.07%20.97%22.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.284.254.7025.97%23.36%23.53%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.20%4.31fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.272%
Kelly -0.355%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.51%23.30%23.21%24.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.863.854.2628.57%25.88%25.97%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Derry City (Local): 55.67%; Dundalk (Visit): 21.13%; Draw: 23.20%. For Dundalk (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.70, with an expected value of -0.681%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -3.14%E -1.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -10.19%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -10.67%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 14:31
TABtouch🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -3.14%E -1.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -10.19%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -10.67%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 14:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -3.14%E -1.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -10.19%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -10.67%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 14:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -3.14%E -1.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -10.19%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -10.67%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 14:31
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -3.14%E -1.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -10.19%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -10.67%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 14:30
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -3.14%E -1.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -10.19%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -10.67%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 14:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -3.14%E -1.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -10.19%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -10.67%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 14:31
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -3.14%E -1.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -10.19%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -10.67%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 14:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -3.14%E -1.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -10.19%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -10.67%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 14:30
Coolbet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.54%EV -4.25%E -2.47%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -7.02%E -1.60%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.75%EV -2.55%E -0.607%K -0.797%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-23 14:44
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.68%EV -4.81%E -2.81%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 21.95%EV -9.98%E -2.34%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.19%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 13:50
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.73%EV -5.92%E -3.51%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.66%EV -1.95%E -0.420%K -0.535%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.61%EV -1.62%E -0.382%K -0.500%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-23 15:58
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.08%EV -5.92%E -3.51%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -9.13%E -2.12%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -7.19%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-23 13:45
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.08%EV -6.48%E -3.86%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.40%EV -0.681%E -0.145%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.51%EV -1.16%E -0.272%K -0.355%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-23 15:06
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.73%EV -6.48%E -3.86%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.13%E -2.12%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -10.67%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-23 14:43
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.18%EV -6.48%E -3.86%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.47%E -3.87%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -15.31%E -4.19%K -5.78%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-23 14:31
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.18%EV -6.48%E -3.86%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.47%E -3.87%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -15.31%E -4.19%K -5.78%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-23 14:31
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.23%EV -7.04%E -4.21%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -4.91%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -4.87%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-23 14:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -7.04%E -4.21%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.91%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -9.51%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-23 15:05
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.32%EV -7.04%E -4.21%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -7.02%E -1.60%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -9.51%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-23 14:44
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.93%EV -7.04%E -4.21%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.25%E -2.68%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.22%EV -8.35%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-23 14:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.91%EV -7.04%E -4.21%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.58%EV -10.19%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -9.51%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-23 14:43
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.80%EV -7.04%E -4.21%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -7.02%E -1.60%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -12.99%E -3.46%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-23 14:31
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -7.04%E -4.21%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -15.47%E -3.87%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -12.99%E -3.46%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 14:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.38%EV -7.59%E -4.58%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.91%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -4.87%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-23 15:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.38%EV -7.59%E -4.58%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.91%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -4.87%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-23 15:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.30%EV -7.59%E -4.58%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.12%EV -15.47%E -3.87%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -16.47%E -4.58%K -6.34%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-23 14:31
FanDuel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -8.15%E -4.94%K -12.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -4.91%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.19%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-23 14:41
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -8.15%E -4.94%K -12.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -4.91%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.19%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-23 14:44
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%EV -8.15%E -4.94%K -12.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -11.25%E -2.68%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -7.19%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 15:58
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.27%EV -8.15%E -4.94%K -12.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -7.02%E -1.60%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -11.83%E -3.11%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 15:06
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.27%EV -8.15%E -4.94%K -12.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -7.02%E -1.60%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -11.83%E -3.11%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 15:06
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -8.15%E -4.94%K -12.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -11.25%E -2.68%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -14.15%E -3.82%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 14:31
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -8.15%E -4.94%K -12.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -11.25%E -2.68%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -14.15%E -3.82%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 14:43
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -8.15%E -4.94%K -12.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -11.25%E -2.68%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -14.15%E -3.82%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 14:44
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -8.15%E -4.94%K -12.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -11.25%E -2.68%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -14.15%E -3.82%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 14:43
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.54%EV -8.71%E -5.31%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.69%EV -11.25%E -2.68%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -7.19%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-23 15:06
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.27%EV -8.71%E -5.31%K -13.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.12%EV -16.53%E -4.18%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.61%EV -17.63%E -4.97%K -6.91%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-23 14:31
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.75%EV -9.26%E -5.68%K -14.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -7.02%E -1.60%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -10.67%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-23 15:06
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -9.82%E -6.06%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -8.50%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -11.83%E -3.11%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-23 15:49
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.36%EV -9.82%E -6.06%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -11.25%E -2.68%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.29%EV -10.67%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 15:06
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.23%EV -9.82%E -6.06%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.82%EV -13.36%E -3.26%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -9.51%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-23 15:06
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -9.82%E -6.06%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -11.25%E -2.68%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -12.99%E -3.46%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-23 14:43
PMU (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 53.24%EV -10.38%E -6.45%K -17.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.27%EV -18.64%E -4.84%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.49%EV -18.79%E -5.37%K -7.52%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-23 14:29
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.63%EV -12.05%E -7.63%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.93%EV -11.25%E -2.68%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -12.99%E -3.46%K -4.72%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-23 15:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.92%EV -12.60%E -8.03%K -22.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.35%EV -0.681%E -0.145%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -7.19%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-23 15:06
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 56.27%EV -15.39%E -10.12%K -29.59%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.61%EV -12.30%E -2.96%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.12%EV -14.15%E -3.82%K -5.24%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-23 15:06
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.59%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.51%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.90%1.6%2026-10-23 15:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.59%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.51%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.90%1.6%2026-10-23 15:59
Matchbook◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.59%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.51%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.90%1.6%2026-10-23 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 56.73%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.45%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.82%1.9%2026-10-23 15:45