The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sangju Sangmu FC v Daejeon Citizen

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 05:00 UTC

Final: Sangju Sangmu FC 1–2 Daejeon Citizen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sangju Sangmu FC (Local)

Prediction 24.90%4.02fair odd
EV +2.08%
Edge +0.507%
Kelly +0.670%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.26%24.83%24.84%28.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.563.604.1032.79%28.12%27.78%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Daejeon Citizen (Visit)

Prediction 49.94%2.00fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.820%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.20%49.99%50.02%53.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.861.851.9760.61%53.76%54.05%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.16%3.97fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -0.948%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.52%25.17%25.14%26.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.523.503.8331.25%28.38%28.57%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sangju Sangmu FC (Local): 24.90%; Daejeon Citizen (Visit): 49.94%; Draw: 25.16%. For Sangju Sangmu FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV +2.08%E +0.507%K +0.670%G +0.014%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.07%EV -14.10%E -8.20%K -19.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 04:45
Pinnacle🎯4.03I 24.81%NM 23.83%EV +0.335%E +0.083%K +0.111%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.09%EV -6.11%E -3.25%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.08%EV -3.63%E -0.948%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 04:45
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -0.412%E -0.103%K -0.137%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -8.61%E -4.70%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 04:55
LowVig.ag🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -2.90%E -0.744%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -6.61%E -3.53%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -4.39%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 04:45
BetOnline.ag🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -2.90%E -0.744%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -6.61%E -3.53%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -4.39%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 04:44
DraftKings🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -2.90%E -0.744%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.55%EV -6.61%E -3.53%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.21%EV -5.64%E -1.51%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 04:45
BetMGM🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -2.90%E -0.744%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -8.61%E -4.70%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -5.64%E -1.51%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 04:50
Bovada🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -4.15%E -1.08%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -9.11%E -5.00%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -8.16%E -2.24%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 04:44
Unibet (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -5.39%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -7.61%E -4.11%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 04:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -5.39%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.61%E -4.11%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -11.94%E -3.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 04:45
William Hill🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -5.39%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.61%E -4.11%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -11.94%E -3.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 04:44
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -5.39%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -10.11%E -5.61%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 04:55
PlayUp🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV -6.64%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -8.61%E -4.70%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 04:55
Sky Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -6.64%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -10.11%E -5.61%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.45%E -4.25%K -6.02%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 04:45
Marathon Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -7.88%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%EV -5.61%E -2.97%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.68%EV -8.92%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 04:20
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.45%EV -7.88%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.70%EV -9.11%E -5.00%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -11.94%E -3.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-24 04:45
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.45%EV -7.88%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.70%EV -9.11%E -5.00%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -11.94%E -3.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-24 04:45
Neds🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -7.88%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.04%EV -12.60%E -7.20%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 04:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -7.88%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.04%EV -12.60%E -7.20%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 04:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -7.88%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.04%EV -12.60%E -7.20%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 04:50
Coral🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -7.88%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.04%EV -12.60%E -7.20%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 04:50
1xBet🎯3.69I 27.10%NM 25.31%EV -8.13%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.89%EV -4.61%E -2.41%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.80%EV -8.92%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 04:20
LeoVegas🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -9.13%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.81%EV -10.11%E -5.61%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.62%EV -11.94%E -3.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 04:55
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -10.37%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.76%EV -3.61%E -1.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.64%E -1.51%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 04:25
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.37%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.78%EV -5.61%E -2.97%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 04:45
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -10.37%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -7.61%E -4.11%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -5.64%E -1.51%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 04:45
Winamax (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -10.37%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.06%EV -9.11%E -5.00%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 04:45
Betclic (FR)🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 24.53%EV -10.87%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.17%EV -12.60%E -7.20%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.30%EV -12.69%E -3.66%K -5.14%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-24 04:44
Winamax (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -11.62%E -3.27%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.27%EV -11.10%E -6.24%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -8.16%E -2.24%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-24 04:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -12.86%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -4.61%E -2.41%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 04:25
NetBet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -12.86%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.93%EV -10.11%E -5.61%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -14.45%E -4.25%K -6.02%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-24 04:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.09%EV -12.86%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 51.11%EV -17.60%E -10.66%K -27.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.80%EV -14.45%E -4.25%K -6.02%G +0.000%18.6%2026-10-24 04:44
Betr (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -15.35%E -4.51%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.19%EV -6.11%E -3.25%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 04:25
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -15.35%E -4.51%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -8.61%E -4.70%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -11.94%E -3.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 04:25
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -15.35%E -4.51%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.93%EV -10.11%E -5.61%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -11.94%E -3.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-24 04:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.94%EV -20.33%E -6.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.38%EV -1.62%E -0.820%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%EV -15.71%E -4.69%K -6.68%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 04:34
Unibet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -20.33%E -6.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.20%EV -1.62%E -0.820%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -16.97%E -5.14%K -7.38%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 04:34
Virgin Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -20.33%E -6.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.20%EV -1.62%E -0.820%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -16.97%E -5.14%K -7.38%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 04:34
LiveScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -20.33%E -6.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.20%EV -1.62%E -0.820%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -16.97%E -5.14%K -7.38%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 04:34
Unibet (NL)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -20.33%E -6.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.32%EV -2.11%E -1.08%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -16.97%E -5.14%K -7.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 04:34
Casumo🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -20.33%E -6.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.32%EV -2.11%E -1.08%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -16.97%E -5.14%K -7.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 04:35
Grosvenor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -20.33%E -6.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.32%EV -2.11%E -1.08%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -16.97%E -5.14%K -7.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 04:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -20.33%E -6.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.32%EV -2.11%E -1.08%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -16.97%E -5.14%K -7.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 04:34
TABtouch🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -20.33%E -6.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.32%EV -2.11%E -1.08%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -16.97%E -5.14%K -7.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 04:34
betPARX🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -20.33%E -6.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.32%EV -2.11%E -1.08%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -16.97%E -5.14%K -7.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 04:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -20.33%E -6.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.32%EV -2.11%E -1.08%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -16.97%E -5.14%K -7.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 04:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.01%EV -21.57%E -6.85%K -10.03%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.25%EV -2.61%E -1.34%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.74%EV -16.97%E -5.14%K -7.38%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-24 04:34
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.02%EV -22.82%E -7.36%K -10.87%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.25%EV -4.11%E -2.14%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.73%EV -18.23%E -5.61%K -8.10%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-24 04:34
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 27.97%EV -24.06%E -7.89%K -11.74%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 45.37%EV -6.11%E -3.25%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.66%EV -19.48%E -6.09%K -8.86%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-24 04:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.32%1.3%2026-10-24 04:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.32%1.3%2026-10-24 04:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.32%1.3%2026-10-24 04:55
Matchbook◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.32%1.3%2026-10-24 04:50
Kalshi◎4.17I 23.98%NM 23.50%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.04%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46%2.0%2026-10-24 04:55
Smarkets◎4.10I 24.39%NM 23.74%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.97%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.29%2.7%2026-10-24 04:55

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