The School of Odds
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Pohang Steelers v Gangwon FC

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pohang Steelers (Local)

Prediction 36.77%2.72fair odd
EV -8.09%
Edge -3.23%
Kelly -5.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.63%36.77%36.77%37.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.452.432.5042.19%40.88%41.15%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gangwon FC (Visit)

Prediction 33.27%3.01fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.80%33.27%33.27%33.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.732.702.8837.74%36.67%37.04%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.96%3.34fair odd
EV -7.11%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -3.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.30%29.96%29.96%31.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.033.053.1035.09%32.99%32.79%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pohang Steelers (Local): 36.77%; Gangwon FC (Visit): 33.27%; Draw: 29.96%. For Gangwon FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.88, with an expected value of -4.18%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -8.09%E -3.23%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -6.84%E -2.44%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.11%E -2.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 06:26
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.09%E -3.23%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.84%E -2.44%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -10.11%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-07 04:30
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -8.09%E -3.23%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -4.18%E -1.45%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -13.11%E -4.52%K -6.90%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-28 08:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -8.09%E -3.23%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -4.18%E -1.45%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -13.11%E -4.52%K -6.90%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-28 08:44
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.01%EV -8.82%E -3.56%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -8.50%E -3.09%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.11%E -2.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-01 10:24
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -9.92%E -4.05%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -10.17%E -3.77%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -7.11%E -2.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-01 10:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -9.92%E -4.05%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -10.17%E -3.77%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -7.11%E -2.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-01 10:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -10.66%E -4.39%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -10.17%E -3.77%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -8.61%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-01 10:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -10.66%E -4.39%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -10.17%E -3.77%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -8.61%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-01 10:14
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -10.66%E -4.39%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -10.17%E -3.77%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -8.61%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-01 10:14
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -10.66%E -4.39%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -10.17%E -3.77%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -8.61%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-01 10:13
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -10.66%E -4.39%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -10.17%E -3.77%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -8.61%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-01 10:13
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -10.66%E -4.39%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -10.17%E -3.77%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -8.61%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-01 10:14
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -10.66%E -4.39%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -10.17%E -3.77%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -8.61%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-01 10:14
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -10.66%E -4.39%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -10.17%E -3.77%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -8.61%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-01 10:14
betPARX🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -10.66%E -4.39%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -10.17%E -3.77%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -8.61%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-01 10:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -10.66%E -4.39%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -10.17%E -3.77%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -8.61%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-01 10:23
BetRivers🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.85%EV -10.66%E -4.39%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.79%EV -11.83%E -4.46%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -8.61%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-01 10:09
NetBet (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 36.68%EV -12.87%E -5.43%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.81%EV -11.83%E -4.46%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.51%EV -14.60%E -5.12%K -7.89%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-07 04:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.