Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pohang Steelers v FC Seoul

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 10:00 UTC

Final: Pohang Steelers 2–1 FC Seoul

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pohang Steelers (Local)

Prediction 20.29%4.93fair odd
EV +0.428%
Edge +0.086%
Kelly +0.108%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.76%20.26%20.30%22.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.384.404.9525.97%22.83%22.73%20.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Seoul (Visit)

Prediction 54.26%1.84fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -2.56%
Kelly -5.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.88%54.19%54.20%55.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.711.711.7663.69%58.63%58.48%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.45%3.93fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -0.864%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.49%25.55%25.50%26.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.513.503.8031.25%28.52%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pohang Steelers (Local): 20.29%; FC Seoul (Visit): 54.26%; Draw: 25.45%. For Pohang Steelers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.93. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.428%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.95I 20.20%NM 19.49%EV +0.428%E +0.086%K +0.108%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.12%EV -5.05%E -2.88%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.39%EV -3.28%E -0.864%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-20 09:59
SportsBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -0.587%E -0.120%K -0.150%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -7.22%E -4.22%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -8.37%E -2.33%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 09:44
Tipico (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -0.587%E -0.120%K -0.150%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.71%EV -10.47%E -6.35%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.37%E -2.33%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 09:49
Marathon Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -2.62%E -0.545%K -0.688%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.75%EV -7.76%E -4.56%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -8.37%E -2.33%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 09:55
1xBet🎯4.76I 21.01%NM 19.65%EV -3.43%E -0.720%K -0.911%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.37%EV -6.67%E -3.88%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.98%EV -8.37%E -2.33%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 09:57
Coolbet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.63%E -0.764%K -0.968%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -6.67%E -3.88%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -4.56%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 09:39
Fanatics🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -3.63%E -0.764%K -0.968%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.10%EV -7.22%E -4.22%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -10.92%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 09:09
DraftKings🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -4.64%E -0.988%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.52%EV -5.59%E -3.21%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -4.56%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-20 09:44
BetOnline.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -4.64%E -0.988%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -5.05%E -2.88%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -5.83%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-20 09:59
LowVig.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -4.64%E -0.988%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -5.05%E -2.88%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -5.83%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-20 09:59
Bovada🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV -4.64%E -0.988%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.67%EV -8.30%E -4.91%K -12.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.67%EV -8.37%E -2.33%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-20 09:53
Unibet (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.67%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.24%EV -6.13%E -3.54%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -5.83%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 09:34
BetMGM🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -6.67%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.53%EV -7.22%E -4.22%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.83%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 09:59
PlayUp🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -6.67%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.81%EV -6.67%E -3.88%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -9.65%E -2.72%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 09:44
William Hill🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -6.67%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -6.13%E -3.54%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -10.92%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 09:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -6.67%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -6.13%E -3.54%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -10.92%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 09:44
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -8.70%E -1.93%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -6.13%E -3.54%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -4.56%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 09:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -8.70%E -1.93%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -7.76%E -4.56%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -5.83%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 09:39
betfred_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -8.70%E -1.93%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.76%E -4.56%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.37%E -2.33%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 09:09
Winamax (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.16%EV -8.70%E -1.93%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.32%EV -11.01%E -6.72%K -17.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -5.83%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 09:34
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -8.70%E -1.93%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.11%EV -9.39%E -5.62%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -10.92%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-20 09:44
Sky Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -8.70%E -1.93%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.70%EV -9.39%E -5.62%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 09:39
NordicBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -10.73%E -2.44%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -7.76%E -4.56%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -10.92%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 09:35
Betsson🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -10.73%E -2.44%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -7.76%E -4.56%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -10.92%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 09:34
Betr (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -10.73%E -2.44%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.71%EV -8.84%E -5.26%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -10.92%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 09:39
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -10.73%E -2.44%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.19%EV -12.10%E -7.47%K -19.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -7.10%E -1.95%K -2.68%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 09:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -12.15%E -2.81%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -9.39%E -5.62%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -10.92%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 09:59
Coral🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -12.15%E -2.81%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -9.39%E -5.62%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -10.92%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 09:59
Neds🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -12.15%E -2.81%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -9.39%E -5.62%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -10.92%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 09:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -12.15%E -2.81%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -9.39%E -5.62%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -10.92%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 09:59
BoyleSports🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.55%EV -12.15%E -2.81%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.28%EV -9.39%E -5.62%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.17%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-20 09:49
LeoVegas🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.96%EV -12.76%E -2.97%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.65%EV -8.84%E -5.26%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -9.65%E -2.72%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 09:34
NetBet (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.47%EV -12.76%E -2.97%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.01%EV -11.56%E -7.09%K -18.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.52%EV -12.19%E -3.53%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-20 09:58
Betclic (FR)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 20.63%EV -13.77%E -3.24%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 53.80%EV -11.56%E -7.09%K -18.34%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.57%EV -12.70%E -3.70%K -5.23%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-20 09:38
Unibet (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.36%EV -14.79%E -3.52%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 54.48%EV -14.81%E -9.43%K -25.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.16%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%16.9%2026-09-20 09:49
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -18.85%E -4.71%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 50.88%EV -4.50%E -2.56%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -14.74%E -4.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 09:34
Unibet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -18.85%E -4.71%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.02%EV -5.05%E -2.88%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -14.74%E -4.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 09:34
Casumo🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -18.85%E -4.71%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.02%EV -5.05%E -2.88%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -14.74%E -4.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 09:34
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -18.85%E -4.71%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.02%EV -5.05%E -2.88%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -14.74%E -4.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 09:34
TABtouch🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -18.85%E -4.71%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.02%EV -5.05%E -2.88%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -14.74%E -4.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 09:34
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -18.85%E -4.71%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.02%EV -5.05%E -2.88%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -14.74%E -4.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 09:34
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -18.85%E -4.71%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.02%EV -5.05%E -2.88%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -14.74%E -4.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 09:35
Unibet (NL)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -18.85%E -4.71%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.02%EV -5.05%E -2.88%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -14.74%E -4.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 09:34
Unibet (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -18.85%E -4.71%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.02%EV -5.05%E -2.88%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -14.74%E -4.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 09:34
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -18.85%E -4.71%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.02%EV -5.05%E -2.88%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -14.74%E -4.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 09:35
betPARX🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -18.85%E -4.71%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.02%EV -5.05%E -2.88%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -14.74%E -4.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 09:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.17%EV -18.85%E -4.71%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 50.96%EV -5.59%E -3.21%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -16.01%E -4.85%K -6.96%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-20 09:35
BetRivers🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.32%EV -20.88%E -5.35%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 50.90%EV -7.22%E -4.22%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.78%EV -17.28%E -5.32%K -7.68%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-20 09:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 22.25%EV -21.89%E -5.69%K -7.68%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 50.98%EV -8.84%E -5.26%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.77%EV -18.55%E -5.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-20 09:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.47%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-09-20 09:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.47%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-09-20 09:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.47%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-09-20 09:55
Matchbook◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.47%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-09-20 09:55
Smarkets◎5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.41%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.62%1.4%2026-09-20 09:59
Kalshi◎5.26I 19.01%NM 18.62%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.95%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.43%2.1%2026-09-20 09:59