The School of Odds
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Incheon United v Jeju United FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 05:00 UTC

Final: Incheon United 3–1 Jeju United FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Incheon United (Local)

Prediction 41.35%2.42fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.80%41.28%41.41%42.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.212.232.3450.76%45.17%44.84%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jeju United FC (Visit)

Prediction 29.00%3.45fair odd
EV +2.36%
Edge +0.667%
Kelly +0.931%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 3.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.78%28.95%29.01%30.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.073.003.5335.71%32.60%33.33%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.65%3.37fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.69%29.77%29.58%31.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.053.053.2534.48%32.75%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Incheon United (Local): 41.35%; Jeju United FC (Visit): 29.00%; Draw: 29.65%. For Jeju United FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.88%EV -4.48%E -1.94%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.41%EV +2.36%E +0.667%K +0.931%G +0.022%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV -6.60%E -2.09%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-24 04:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.93%EV -4.06%E -1.75%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -1.41%E -0.416%K -0.589%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.14%EV -9.56%E -3.13%K -4.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 04:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -11.09%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -1.41%E -0.416%K -0.589%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -12.53%E -4.25%K -6.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 04:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.56%EV -3.24%E -1.38%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.33%EV -2.86%E -0.855%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -9.56%E -3.13%K -4.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 04:55
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.89%E -2.13%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -2.86%E -0.855%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 04:50
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -9.03%E -4.10%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -5.76%E -1.77%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 04:55
Bovada🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.05%EV -7.37%E -3.29%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -5.76%E -1.77%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.65%EV -11.04%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 04:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -6.96%E -3.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -5.76%E -1.77%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -14.01%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 04:49
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -6.96%E -3.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -5.76%E -1.77%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -14.01%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 04:50
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.34%EV -6.55%E -2.90%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.10%EV -6.92%E -2.16%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.56%EV -6.30%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 21:05
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.96%E -3.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.21%E -2.25%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.11%E -1.60%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 04:31
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.51%EV -7.37%E -3.29%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.21%E -2.25%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.43%EV -6.30%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 21:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -6.96%E -3.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.21%E -2.25%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 04:55
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.03%E -4.10%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.21%E -2.25%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 04:20
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -4.89%E -2.13%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -8.66%E -2.75%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -3.63%E -1.12%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-22 01:59
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -6.96%E -3.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.66%E -2.75%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.63%E -1.12%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 07:48
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -6.96%E -3.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -8.66%E -2.75%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 04:55
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.90%EV -8.20%E -3.69%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -8.66%E -2.75%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.04%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-24 04:55
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.90%EV -8.20%E -3.69%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -8.66%E -2.75%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.04%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-24 04:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -6.96%E -3.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.11%E -3.26%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -5.11%E -1.60%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-19 05:30
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.55%EV -9.85%E -4.52%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -10.11%E -3.26%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 04:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -9.03%E -4.10%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -11.56%E -3.79%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -6.60%E -2.09%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 04:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.66%EV -13.16%E -6.27%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.88%EV -12.14%E -4.01%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.46%EV -11.93%E -4.02%K -6.06%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-24 04:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -6.96%E -3.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -13.01%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-23 09:20
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -9.03%E -4.10%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -13.01%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-24 02:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -11.09%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.01%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 04:55
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -11.09%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.01%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-21 05:31
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -11.09%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.01%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 04:31
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -11.09%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.01%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 04:31
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -11.09%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.01%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 04:31
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -11.09%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.01%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 04:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.31%EV -12.33%E -5.82%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -13.01%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.49%EV -11.93%E -4.02%K -6.06%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-24 04:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.99%EV -6.96%E -3.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.50%EV -14.46%E -4.90%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.50%EV -9.56%E -3.13%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 04:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 42.61%EV -18.54%E -9.41%K -19.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.45%EV -14.46%E -4.90%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.94%EV -14.01%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%19.1%2026-10-24 04:55
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.80%EV -7.79%E -3.49%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -15.91%E -5.49%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -11.04%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 04:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.80%EV -7.79%E -3.49%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -15.91%E -5.49%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -11.04%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 04:34
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.80%EV -7.79%E -3.49%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -15.91%E -5.49%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -11.04%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 04:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.80%EV -7.79%E -3.49%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -15.91%E -5.49%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -11.04%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 04:34
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.80%EV -7.79%E -3.49%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -15.91%E -5.49%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -11.04%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 04:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.80%EV -7.79%E -3.49%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -15.91%E -5.49%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -11.04%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 04:34
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.80%EV -7.79%E -3.49%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -15.91%E -5.49%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -11.04%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 04:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.80%EV -7.79%E -3.49%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -15.91%E -5.49%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -11.04%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 04:34
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.80%EV -7.79%E -3.49%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -15.91%E -5.49%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -11.04%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 04:34
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.80%EV -7.79%E -3.49%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -15.91%E -5.49%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -11.04%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 04:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.80%EV -7.79%E -3.49%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -15.91%E -5.49%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -11.04%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 04:35
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -9.03%E -4.10%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -15.91%E -5.49%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -11.04%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-23 06:59
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -9.03%E -4.10%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -16.49%E -5.73%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-22 02:00
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 39.94%EV -9.85%E -4.52%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.55%EV -17.36%E -6.09%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.51%EV -12.53%E -4.25%K -6.42%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-24 04:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 39.96%EV -11.51%E -5.38%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.54%EV -18.81%E -6.72%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.49%EV -14.01%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-24 04:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.80%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.37%1.3%2026-10-24 04:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.63%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.67%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.70%1.8%2026-10-24 04:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.63%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.67%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.70%1.8%2026-10-24 04:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.63%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.67%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.70%1.8%2026-10-24 04:55
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.21%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.43%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.0%2026-10-24 04:50
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 41.47%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.73%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.81%3.1%2026-10-24 04:55