The School of Odds
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Gangwon FC v Incheon United

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 10:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gangwon FC (Local)

Prediction 40.47%2.47fair odd
EV -4.89%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -3.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.86%40.47%40.47%40.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.272.252.3545.45%44.01%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Incheon United (Visit)

Prediction 29.18%3.43fair odd
EV +2.12%
Edge +0.605%
Kelly +0.847%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.28%29.18%29.18%29.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.263.203.5032.26%30.72%31.25%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.35%3.29fair odd
EV -5.91%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -2.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.15%30.35%30.35%32.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.963.003.1035.71%33.80%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gangwon FC (Local): 40.47%; Incheon United (Visit): 29.18%; Draw: 30.35%. For Incheon United (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.43. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.94%E -3.97%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV +2.12%E +0.605%K +0.847%G +0.018%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -15.01%E -5.36%K -8.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 13:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.94%E -3.97%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV +2.12%E +0.605%K +0.847%G +0.018%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -15.01%E -5.36%K -8.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 13:14
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -4.89%E -2.08%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -5.18%E -1.59%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -5.91%E -1.91%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-03 10:54
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.92%E -3.01%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -5.18%E -1.59%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -7.43%E -2.43%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 13:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.92%E -3.01%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.64%E -2.07%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.91%E -1.91%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-03 10:45
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.94%E -3.97%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.64%E -2.07%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.94%E -2.98%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 13:34
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.94%E -3.97%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -6.64%E -2.07%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -11.98%E -4.13%K -6.30%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-03 10:31
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.92%E -3.01%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.55%E -3.08%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.94%E -2.98%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-03 10:58
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -10.96%E -4.98%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -9.55%E -3.08%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -12.59%E -4.37%K -6.69%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-05 10:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 25.92%1.42I 70.42%NM 35.96%1.34I 74.63%NM 38.11%95.8%2026-08-07 08:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 25.92%1.42I 70.42%NM 35.96%1.34I 74.63%NM 38.11%95.8%2026-08-07 08:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 23.15%1.40I 71.43%NM 32.57%1.03I 97.09%NM 44.28%119.3%2026-08-07 08:45

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