The School of Odds
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FC Seoul v Jeju United FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 05:00 UTC

Final: FC Seoul 2–1 Jeju United FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Seoul (Local)

Prediction 57.86%1.73fair odd
EV -5.11%
Edge -3.12%
Kelly -7.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.72%57.74%57.82%59.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.601.611.6468.97%62.62%62.11%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jeju United FC (Visit)

Prediction 18.73%5.34fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -0.318%
Kelly -0.393%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.54%18.87%18.75%20.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.664.605.2523.53%21.47%21.74%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.41%4.27fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -0.919%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.40%23.39%23.43%24.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.773.754.1128.57%26.55%26.67%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Seoul (Local): 57.86%; Jeju United FC (Visit): 18.73%; Draw: 23.41%. For Jeju United FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.25, with an expected value of -1.67%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.88%EV -5.11%E -3.12%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -17.59%E -4.00%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.66%EV -14.55%E -3.98%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-03 05:20
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.69%EV -5.69%E -3.49%K -9.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.35%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 05:35
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.69%EV -5.69%E -3.49%K -9.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.35%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 05:30
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.72%EV -5.69%E -3.49%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -18.53%E -4.26%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%EV -15.72%E -4.37%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 05:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.72%EV -5.69%E -3.49%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -18.53%E -4.26%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%EV -15.72%E -4.37%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 05:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.72%EV -5.69%E -3.49%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -18.53%E -4.26%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%EV -15.72%E -4.37%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 05:21
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.72%EV -5.69%E -3.49%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -18.53%E -4.26%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%EV -15.72%E -4.37%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 05:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.72%EV -5.69%E -3.49%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -18.53%E -4.26%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%EV -15.72%E -4.37%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 05:20
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.72%EV -5.69%E -3.49%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -18.53%E -4.26%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%EV -15.72%E -4.37%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 05:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.72%EV -5.69%E -3.49%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -18.53%E -4.26%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%EV -15.72%E -4.37%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 05:20
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.72%EV -5.69%E -3.49%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -18.53%E -4.26%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%EV -15.72%E -4.37%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 05:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.72%EV -5.69%E -3.49%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -18.53%E -4.26%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%EV -15.72%E -4.37%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 05:20
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.72%EV -5.69%E -3.49%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -18.53%E -4.26%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%EV -15.72%E -4.37%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 05:25
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.50%EV -6.27%E -3.87%K -10.11%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.44%EV -3.73%E -0.725%K -0.901%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.06%EV -3.78%E -0.919%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-04 04:15
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.27%E -3.87%K -10.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -6.35%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-04 00:25
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.70%EV -6.27%E -3.87%K -10.11%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -10.10%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 10:46
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.58%EV -6.27%E -3.87%K -10.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -11.03%E -2.32%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-05 05:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.74%EV -6.27%E -3.87%K -10.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.62%EV -19.46%E -4.53%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.63%EV -15.72%E -4.37%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-03 05:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -6.85%E -4.25%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -10.10%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-05 10:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -7.43%E -4.64%K -12.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -6.35%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-05 05:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.79%EV -7.43%E -4.64%K -12.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.49%EV -6.35%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -8.69%E -2.23%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-05 05:00
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56%EV -7.43%E -4.64%K -12.38%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.54%EV -1.67%E -0.318%K -0.393%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -13.37%E -3.61%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-05 05:09
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -7.43%E -4.64%K -12.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -6.35%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -12.20%E -3.25%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-03 05:54
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.73%EV -7.43%E -4.64%K -12.38%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.60%EV -20.40%E -4.80%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.67%EV -16.89%E -4.76%K -6.62%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-03 05:20
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.77%EV -8.01%E -5.04%K -13.57%G +0.000%5.07I 19.72%NM 18.43%EV -5.04%E -0.994%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -4.01%E -0.978%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-05 10:34
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.01%EV -8.01%E -5.04%K -13.57%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.63%EV -7.29%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -7.52%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-04 04:16
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.31%EV -8.58%E -5.43%K -14.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.86%EV -10.10%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 05:40
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.31%EV -8.58%E -5.43%K -14.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.86%EV -10.10%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 05:40
LeoVegas🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.01%EV -8.58%E -5.43%K -14.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -11.03%E -2.32%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -12.20%E -3.25%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-05 10:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -9.16%E -5.84%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.06%EV -3.54%E -0.688%K -0.853%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -4.01%E -0.978%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-03 05:49
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.21%EV -9.16%E -5.84%K -16.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.02%EV -18.90%E -4.36%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.77%EV -18.06%E -5.16%K -7.22%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-03 05:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.24%EV -10.32%E -6.66%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -6.35%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -4.01%E -0.978%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 11:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 56.97%EV -10.90%E -7.08%K -20.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.94%EV -17.59%E -4.00%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-03 06:10
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.38%EV -11.48%E -7.50%K -21.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -15.72%E -3.49%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-03 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.27%EV -11.48%E -7.50%K -21.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.05%EV -13.84%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.68%EV -13.37%E -3.61%K -4.95%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-03 05:38
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 56.68%EV -12.06%E -7.93%K -23.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.04%EV -19.46%E -4.53%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.28%EV -13.37%E -3.61%K -4.95%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-03 06:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 57.97%EV -16.11%E -11.11%K -35.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.68%EV -15.72%E -3.49%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.35%EV -15.72%E -4.37%K -6.04%G +0.000%19.0%2026-10-03 05:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 58.65%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.29%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.07%4.0%2026-10-05 10:00
Smarkets◎1.52I 65.79%NM 56.38%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.48%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.14%16.7%2026-10-04 05:05