The School of Odds
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Yokohama F Marinos v Tokyo Verdy

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yokohama F Marinos (Local)

Prediction 40.12%2.49fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.94%40.11%40.19%41.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.132.282.302.4146.95%43.82%43.48%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Verdy (Visit)

Prediction 28.69%3.49fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.634%
Kelly -0.898%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.74%28.76%28.65%29.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.203.4133.33%31.64%31.25%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.19%3.21fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.16%31.13%31.16%31.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.932.903.0735.71%34.14%34.48%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yokohama F Marinos (Local): 40.12%; Tokyo Verdy (Visit): 28.69%; Draw: 31.19%. For Tokyo Verdy (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.49. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.41, with an expected value of -2.16%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.13%EV -3.30%E -1.37%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.36%EV -2.16%E -0.634%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.50%EV -4.26%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-28 03:50
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -5.71%E -2.43%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -5.32%E -1.61%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -6.44%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 03:50
BetAnything🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.71%E -2.43%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.75%E -2.08%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.44%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 03:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -5.71%E -2.43%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.79%EV -7.04%E -2.17%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.51%EV -7.69%E -2.60%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 03:54
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -5.71%E -2.43%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -11.06%E -3.57%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -6.44%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 03:44
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -7.72%E -3.36%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.32%E -1.61%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.44%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 03:04
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.72%E -3.36%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.19%E -2.56%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -6.44%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 03:20
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -7.72%E -3.36%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.19%E -2.56%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.99%EV -7.07%E -2.37%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-28 03:04
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -7.72%E -3.36%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.19%E -2.56%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.99%EV -7.07%E -2.37%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-28 03:04
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -7.72%E -3.36%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -8.19%E -2.56%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.56%E -3.30%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-28 03:49
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -7.72%E -3.36%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.19%E -2.56%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -10.19%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-28 03:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -7.72%E -3.36%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.19%E -2.56%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -10.19%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-28 03:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -7.72%E -3.36%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.19%E -2.56%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -10.19%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-28 03:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -7.72%E -3.36%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.93%E -4.64%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -10.19%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-28 03:44
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -7.72%E -3.36%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.93%E -4.64%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -10.19%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-28 03:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.94%EV -7.72%E -3.36%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -13.93%E -4.64%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -10.50%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-28 03:44
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.94%EV -7.72%E -3.36%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -13.93%E -4.64%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -10.50%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-28 03:44
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -9.72%E -4.32%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -5.32%E -1.61%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.56%E -3.30%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-28 03:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.58%EV -9.72%E -4.32%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -9.62%E -3.05%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -6.44%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-28 03:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.78%EV -13.74%E -6.39%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.46%EV -11.63%E -3.78%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.76%EV -11.12%E -3.90%K -6.01%G +0.000%14.1%2026-02-28 03:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -13.74%E -6.39%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -13.93%E -4.64%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -9.56%E -3.30%K -5.03%G +0.000%14.3%2026-02-28 03:04
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.44%EV -13.74%E -6.39%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.51%EV -12.49%E -4.10%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.05%EV -12.68%E -4.53%K -7.04%G +0.000%15.0%2026-02-28 03:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.28%EV -14.54%E -6.83%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.18%EV -10.48%E -3.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.53%EV -10.19%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%13.7%2026-02-28 03:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.