The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Yokohama F Marinos v Tokyo Verdy

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 10:03 UTC

Final: Yokohama F Marinos 2–2 Tokyo Verdy

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yokohama F Marinos (Local)

Prediction 49.34%2.03fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.55%49.38%49.34%50.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.861.851.9856.82%53.68%54.05%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Verdy (Visit)

Prediction 22.17%4.51fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -0.557%
Kelly -0.721%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.17%22.15%22.18%23.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.094.104.4026.67%24.47%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.49%3.51fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.498%
Kelly -0.702%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.97%28.47%28.48%29.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.253.253.4533.90%30.74%30.77%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yokohama F Marinos (Local): 49.34%; Tokyo Verdy (Visit): 22.17%; Draw: 28.49%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.45, with an expected value of -1.72%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.28%EV -2.30%E -1.16%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -5.99%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-21 09:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.44%EV -2.79%E -1.42%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -4.67%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -7.42%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-21 09:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.44%EV -2.79%E -1.42%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -4.67%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -7.42%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-21 09:50
BetAnything🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.44%EV -2.79%E -1.42%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -4.67%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -7.42%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-21 09:50
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.48%EV -3.78%E -1.94%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.98%EV -2.67%E -0.609%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.54%EV -3.71%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-21 09:59
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.78%EV -5.26%E -2.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.84%EV -9.10%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -5.99%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-21 10:00
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.79%EV -5.26%E -2.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -13.54%E -3.47%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.84%E -2.76%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-21 09:55
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.76%E -3.01%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -4.67%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -5.99%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-21 09:35
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.76%E -3.01%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.99%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-21 09:59
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -5.76%E -3.01%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.42%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-21 09:35
picklebet_au🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.69%EV -6.25%E -3.29%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.84%EV -10.21%E -2.52%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.42%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 10:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.55%EV -6.25%E -3.29%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%EV -15.75%E -4.15%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -10.27%E -3.26%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-21 09:55
BetMGM🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.22%EV -6.74%E -3.57%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.42%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-21 09:00
Fanatics🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.74%EV -6.74%E -3.57%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -9.10%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.84%E -2.76%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-21 09:00
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.56%EV -7.24%E -3.85%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.80%EV -3.34%E -0.766%K -0.994%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.63%EV -2.00%E -0.583%K -0.821%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-21 09:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -7.24%E -3.85%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -5.99%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 09:36
Svenska Spel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -7.73%E -4.13%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -9.10%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -1.72%E -0.498%K -0.702%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-21 09:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -7.73%E -4.13%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -9.10%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -1.72%E -0.498%K -0.702%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-21 09:05
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.49%EV -7.73%E -4.13%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.42%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 10:00
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -7.73%E -4.13%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.84%E -2.76%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 10:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -7.73%E -4.13%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.84%E -2.76%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 10:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.59%EV -8.22%E -4.42%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.17%EV -13.54%E -3.47%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -8.84%E -2.76%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-21 10:00
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.28%EV -8.72%E -4.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -9.10%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -8.84%E -2.76%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 09:36
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.28%EV -8.72%E -4.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -9.10%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -8.84%E -2.76%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 09:36
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.72%E -4.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-21 09:59
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.72%E -4.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-21 10:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.72%E -4.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-21 09:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.72%E -4.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-21 09:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -8.72%E -4.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 09:00
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -8.72%E -4.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 09:00
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -8.72%E -4.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 09:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -8.72%E -4.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 09:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.61%EV -9.21%E -5.00%K -10.96%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -2.45%E -0.557%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -5.99%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-21 08:14
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.97%EV -9.21%E -5.00%K -10.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -3.14%E -0.925%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-21 09:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.39%EV -9.70%E -5.30%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.10%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -3.14%E -0.925%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-21 09:05
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.39%EV -9.70%E -5.30%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.10%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -3.14%E -0.925%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-21 09:05
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -9.70%E -5.30%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -3.14%E -0.925%K -1.31%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -9.70%E -5.30%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -3.14%E -0.925%K -1.31%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -9.70%E -5.30%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -3.14%E -0.925%K -1.31%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:00
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -9.70%E -5.30%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -3.14%E -0.925%K -1.31%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:05
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -9.70%E -5.30%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -3.14%E -0.925%K -1.31%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:00
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -9.70%E -5.30%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -3.14%E -0.925%K -1.31%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:05
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -9.70%E -5.30%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -8.84%E -2.76%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 09:55
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -9.70%E -5.30%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -13.54%E -3.47%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-21 09:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.04%EV -10.20%E -5.60%K -12.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -4.57%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.04%EV -10.20%E -5.60%K -12.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -4.57%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.40%EV -10.20%E -5.60%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.18%EV -15.75%E -4.15%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-21 10:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -11.18%E -6.21%K -13.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -5.99%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 09:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.47%EV -12.66%E -7.15%K -16.45%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.28%EV -12.87%E -3.28%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.25%EV -11.69%E -3.77%K -5.57%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-21 09:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 48.26%EV -12.66%E -7.15%K -16.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.78%EV -16.86%E -4.50%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.96%EV -15.96%E -5.41%K -8.19%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-21 09:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.03%EV -13.16%E -7.48%K -17.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.87%EV -14.65%E -3.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -7.42%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-21 09:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.36%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.44%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.21%1.3%2026-10-21 10:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.36%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.44%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.21%1.3%2026-10-21 10:00
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.48%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.38%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.14%1.5%2026-10-21 10:00
Matchbook◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.48%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.38%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.14%1.5%2026-10-21 10:00
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.03%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-10-21 09:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.03%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.69%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.28%2.5%2026-10-21 10:00