The School of Odds
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Yokohama F Marinos v Kawasaki Frontale

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 04:00 UTC

Final: Yokohama F Marinos 1–2 Kawasaki Frontale

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yokohama F Marinos (Local)

Prediction 36.53%2.74fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.921%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.66%36.59%36.45%37.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.512.502.6742.55%39.86%40.00%37.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kawasaki Frontale (Visit)

Prediction 36.96%2.71fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.65%36.91%37.07%37.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.482.502.6042.55%40.39%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.51%3.77fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -0.815%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.45%26.50%26.47%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.423.453.6630.30%29.20%28.99%27.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yokohama F Marinos (Local): 36.53%; Kawasaki Frontale (Visit): 36.96%; Draw: 26.51%. For Yokohama F Marinos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.74. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.67, with an expected value of -2.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 36.28%EV -2.46%E -0.921%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.26%EV -3.90%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.47%EV -2.98%E -0.815%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-18 03:30
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -5.02%E -1.93%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -5.75%E -2.26%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-18 03:55
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -5.02%E -1.93%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.45%E -3.86%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 03:45
BetAnything🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -6.84%E -2.68%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.75%E -2.26%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-18 03:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -6.84%E -2.68%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -5.75%E -2.26%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.81%EV -7.75%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 03:50
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.76%EV -7.94%E -3.15%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.76%EV -6.86%E -2.72%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 03:50
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.76%EV -7.94%E -3.15%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.76%EV -6.86%E -2.72%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 03:50
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -3.90%E -1.50%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 03:50
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-18 03:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.36%EV -10.19%E -4.19%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -8.55%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-18 03:49
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -12.53%E -3.80%K -5.45%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-18 03:05
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -12.53%E -3.80%K -5.45%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-18 03:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -12.53%E -3.80%K -5.45%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-18 03:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -7.60%E -3.04%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -12.53%E -3.80%K -5.45%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-18 03:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.15%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -11.30%E -4.71%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -8.55%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-18 03:50
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -11.30%E -4.71%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.53%E -3.80%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-18 03:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -11.30%E -4.71%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.53%E -3.80%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-18 03:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -11.30%E -4.71%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.53%E -3.80%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-18 03:40
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -11.30%E -4.71%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.53%E -3.80%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-18 03:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -10.50%E -4.28%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -9.45%E -3.86%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 03:50
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.43%EV -13.05%E -5.48%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.12%EV -11.30%E -4.71%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-18 03:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.16%EV -14.15%E -6.02%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.16%EV -13.14%E -5.59%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.68%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-18 03:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.