The School of Odds
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Yokohama F Marinos v JEF United Chiba

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yokohama F Marinos (Local)

Prediction 44.66%2.24fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -3.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.81%45.29%44.78%50.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.992.052.1656.82%50.20%48.78%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

JEF United Chiba (Visit)

Prediction 28.01%3.57fair odd
EV -0.548%
Edge -0.154%
Kelly -0.215%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.87%27.84%27.82%28.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.343.333.5532.26%29.93%30.08%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.32%3.66fair odd
EV +3.82%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.37%
Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.05%26.87%27.40%28.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.423.383.8032.26%29.27%29.63%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yokohama F Marinos (Local): 44.66%; JEF United Chiba (Visit): 28.01%; Draw: 27.32%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.21%EV -18.71%E -10.28%K -22.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -0.548%E -0.154%K -0.215%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV +3.82%E +1.01%K +1.37%G +0.052%9.4%2026-03-14 03:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.00%EV -21.39%E -12.15%K -28.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.88%EV -4.75%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.11%EV -0.275%E -0.075%K -0.104%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-14 03:39
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.75%EV -3.53%E -1.63%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.10%EV -3.63%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.15%EV -2.73%E -0.768%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-14 03:50
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.97%E -1.85%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -7.55%E -2.29%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -5.74%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 03:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -7.10%E -3.41%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -6.15%E -1.84%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.11%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 03:40
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.78%EV -8.44%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -7.55%E -2.29%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 03:39
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.78%EV -8.44%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -7.55%E -2.29%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 03:40
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.44%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -13.15%E -4.24%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -9.84%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-14 03:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.95%EV -12.91%E -6.62%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 27.65%EV -11.19%E -3.53%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.39%EV -12.57%E -3.93%K -5.71%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-14 03:43
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.05%EV -17.37%E -9.39%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.87%EV -1.95%E -0.557%K -0.780%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.08%EV -15.30%E -4.94%K -7.29%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-14 03:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.