The School of Odds
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Vissel Kobe v Shimizu S Pulse

Kickoff: 2026-04-01 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vissel Kobe (Local)

Prediction 49.13%2.04fair odd
EV -4.68%
Edge -2.41%
Kelly -4.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.12%49.10%49.16%49.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.871.851.9455.56%53.54%53.91%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shimizu S Pulse (Visit)

Prediction 24.07%4.15fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.501%
Kelly -0.664%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.61%24.10%24.05%25.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.793.804.0728.57%26.36%26.32%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.80%3.73fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -0.600%
Kelly -0.826%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.04%26.80%26.79%27.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.403.403.6531.25%29.44%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vissel Kobe (Local): 49.13%; Shimizu S Pulse (Visit): 24.07%; Draw: 26.80%. For Shimizu S Pulse (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.07, with an expected value of -2.04%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.80%EV -4.68%E -2.41%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.74%EV -2.04%E -0.501%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -2.19%E -0.600%K -0.826%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-01 09:45
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -4.93%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.21%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-01 09:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -6.13%E -1.57%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.21%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-01 09:24
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -6.13%E -1.57%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-01 09:09
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -6.65%E -3.50%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -8.54%E -2.25%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -7.55%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-01 09:20
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -6.65%E -3.50%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -8.54%E -2.25%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -7.55%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-01 09:20
BetAnything🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -7.63%E -4.06%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -6.13%E -1.57%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -4.87%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-01 09:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -7.63%E -4.06%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.61%EV -4.93%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.79%EV -6.75%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 09:10
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -7.63%E -4.06%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.54%E -2.25%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -6.21%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-01 09:30
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.42%EV -8.12%E -4.34%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -9.74%E -2.60%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -11.57%E -3.51%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-01 09:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.00%EV -8.61%E -4.63%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -12.15%E -3.33%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -6.21%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-01 09:20
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.54%E -2.25%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-01 09:30
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.54%E -2.25%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-01 09:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.54%E -2.25%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-01 09:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.54%E -2.25%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-01 09:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.18%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.07%EV -9.02%E -2.39%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-01 09:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.12%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -10.94%E -2.96%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -14.25%E -4.45%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-01 09:09
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.12%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -10.94%E -2.96%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -14.25%E -4.45%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-01 09:10
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.12%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -10.94%E -2.96%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -14.25%E -4.45%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-01 09:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.12%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -10.94%E -2.96%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -14.25%E -4.45%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-01 09:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.21%EV -11.56%E -6.42%K -14.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.94%EV -10.94%E -2.96%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -11.57%E -3.51%K -5.03%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-01 09:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.74%EV -11.56%E -6.42%K -14.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.07%EV -15.76%E -4.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -10.23%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-01 09:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.01%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.52%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-04-01 09:55