The School of Odds
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Vissel Kobe v Kyoto Purple Sanga

Kickoff: 2026-05-13 10:00 UTC

Final: Vissel Kobe 1–0 Kyoto Purple Sanga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vissel Kobe (Local)

Prediction 50.80%1.97fair odd
EV -0.933%
Edge -0.478%
Kelly -0.982%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.22%50.81%50.78%52.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.821.821.9557.47%55.04%54.95%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit)

Prediction 22.04%4.54fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.430%
Kelly -0.555%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.99%22.05%22.09%23.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.124.134.4526.32%24.27%24.24%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.15%3.68fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.11%27.14%27.13%28.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.373.383.5030.77%29.71%29.54%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vissel Kobe (Local): 50.80%; Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit): 22.04%; Draw: 27.15%. For Vissel Kobe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.97. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.95, with an expected value of -0.933%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.58%EV -0.933%E -0.478%K -0.982%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.80%EV -6.54%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -4.96%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-13 09:51
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -5.00%E -2.67%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -9.63%E -2.35%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.32%E -1.83%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-13 09:55
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.22%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -11.75%E -3.61%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-13 08:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.72%EV -6.52%E -3.54%K -7.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.42%E -1.77%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -6.32%E -1.83%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-13 09:55
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -7.03%E -3.84%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -3.02%E -0.686%K -0.887%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.96%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-13 09:55
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -7.03%E -3.84%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -4.56%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.67%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-13 09:55
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -7.03%E -3.84%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -7.42%E -1.77%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -10.39%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-13 09:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -7.03%E -3.84%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -7.42%E -1.77%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -10.39%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-13 09:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -7.03%E -3.84%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -7.42%E -1.77%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -10.39%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-13 09:55
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -7.03%E -3.84%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -7.67%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-13 09:00
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.66%EV -7.54%E -4.14%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -8.53%E -2.05%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -7.67%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-13 09:55
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.66%EV -7.54%E -4.14%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -8.53%E -2.05%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -7.67%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-13 09:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.20%EV -8.05%E -4.45%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.83%EV -12.27%E -3.08%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.96%EV -8.49%E -2.52%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-13 09:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.76%EV -8.55%E -4.75%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -12.94%E -3.27%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.11%EV -4.96%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-13 09:55
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -8.55%E -4.75%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -11.75%E -3.61%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-13 09:55
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -8.55%E -4.75%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -11.75%E -3.61%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-13 09:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -8.55%E -4.75%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -11.75%E -3.61%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-13 09:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -8.55%E -4.75%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -11.75%E -3.61%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-13 09:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.18%EV -9.06%E -5.06%K -11.47%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -1.91%E -0.430%K -0.555%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.84%EV -5.50%E -1.58%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-13 09:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.51%EV -11.09%E -6.34%K -14.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -9.63%E -2.35%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -7.67%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-13 09:55
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -11.09%E -6.34%K -14.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -7.42%E -1.77%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.39%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-13 09:53
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.57%EV -11.60%E -6.67%K -15.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.16%EV -16.24%E -4.27%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.27%EV -9.03%E -2.70%K -3.84%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-13 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.95%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.58%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-05-13 09:55