The School of Odds
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Vissel Kobe v Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC

Kickoff: 2026-03-27 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vissel Kobe (Local)

Prediction 33.67%2.97fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -0.930%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.65%33.95%33.76%37.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.692.722.8940.82%37.22%36.76%34.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit)

Prediction 36.80%2.72fair odd
EV +0.086%
Edge +0.032%
Kelly +0.050%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.93%36.54%36.86%37.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.332.492.502.7242.92%40.15%40.00%36.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.53%3.39fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.29%29.51%29.38%30.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.093.053.2533.33%32.35%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vissel Kobe (Local): 33.67%; Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit): 36.80%; Draw: 29.53%. For Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.718. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.720, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.086%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.67%EV -17.50%E -7.14%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.93%EV +0.086%E +0.032%K +0.050%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -4.02%E -1.24%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-26 22:24
Pinnacle🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 33.53%EV -2.69%E -0.930%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.56%EV -2.49%E -0.939%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.91%EV -4.32%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-27 09:50
BetAnything🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -4.33%E -1.67%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -6.98%E -2.21%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-27 09:55
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -4.33%E -1.67%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -11.41%E -3.80%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-27 09:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 33.41%EV -6.05%E -2.17%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.13%EV -5.07%E -1.96%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.46%EV -9.64%E -3.15%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-27 09:54
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -5.72%E -2.04%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.10%EV -6.17%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -4.02%E -1.24%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-27 09:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -6.17%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -5.50%E -1.72%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-27 09:24
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.98%EV -8.41%E -3.09%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -7.27%E -2.89%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -6.98%E -2.21%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-27 09:25
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -8.01%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -5.50%E -1.72%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-27 09:49
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.01%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.41%E -3.80%K -5.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-27 09:50
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.01%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.41%E -3.80%K -5.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-27 09:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -10.77%E -4.06%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -9.85%E -4.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -5.50%E -1.72%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-27 09:24
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.67%EV -17.50%E -7.14%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.67%EV -9.85%E -4.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.65%EV -9.93%E -3.26%K -4.84%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-27 09:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.67%EV -17.50%E -7.14%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.67%EV -9.85%E -4.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.65%EV -9.93%E -3.26%K -4.84%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-27 09:49
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -11.69%E -4.87%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -11.41%E -3.80%K -5.70%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-27 09:49
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -9.08%E -3.36%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -11.69%E -4.87%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.41%E -3.80%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-27 09:50
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -9.08%E -3.36%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -11.69%E -4.87%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.41%E -3.80%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-27 09:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -9.08%E -3.36%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -11.69%E -4.87%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.41%E -3.80%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-27 09:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -9.08%E -3.36%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -11.69%E -4.87%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.41%E -3.80%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-27 09:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.39%EV -14.14%E -5.54%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.32%EV -13.53%E -5.76%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.29%EV -8.45%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-27 09:23
Betclic (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.42%EV -11.78%E -4.50%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 37.58%EV -14.26%E -6.12%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.00%EV -10.82%E -3.58%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-27 09:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.