The School of Odds
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Vissel Kobe v Gamba Osaka

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vissel Kobe (Local)

Prediction 49.02%2.04fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -4.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.04%48.99%49.01%52.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.871.861.9556.50%53.58%53.76%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gamba Osaka (Visit)

Prediction 24.26%4.12fair odd
EV +5.52%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.091%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.91%24.25%24.24%25.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.763.754.3528.99%26.60%26.67%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.72%3.74fair odd
EV +0.194%
Edge +0.052%
Kelly +0.070%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.42%26.76%26.75%27.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.403.353.7530.77%29.42%29.85%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vissel Kobe (Local): 49.02%; Gamba Osaka (Visit): 24.26%; Draw: 26.72%. For Gamba Osaka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.12. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.52%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.67%EV -11.27%E -6.22%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.91%EV +5.52%E +1.27%K +1.65%G +0.091%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.42%EV +0.194%E +0.052%K +0.070%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-18 08:35
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.54%EV -4.40%E -2.26%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.39%EV +0.181%E +0.044%K +0.058%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.06%EV -4.62%E -1.29%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-18 09:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.12%EV -8.81%E -4.74%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.54%EV -3.94%E -0.996%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.34%EV -5.42%E -1.53%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-18 09:50
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -6.36%E -3.33%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -4.18%E -1.06%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -5.15%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-18 09:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.36%E -3.33%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -7.82%E -2.06%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -6.49%E -1.85%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-18 09:54
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.36%E -3.33%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -7.82%E -2.06%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -6.49%E -1.85%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-18 09:50
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.36%E -3.33%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -7.82%E -2.06%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -11.83%E -3.58%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-18 09:50
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.36%E -3.33%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -7.82%E -2.06%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -11.83%E -3.58%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-18 09:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.36%E -3.33%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -7.82%E -2.06%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -11.83%E -3.58%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-18 09:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.36%E -3.33%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -7.82%E -2.06%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -11.83%E -3.58%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-18 09:50
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.61%EV -6.85%E -3.61%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -9.04%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -7.82%E -2.27%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-18 09:54
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.61%EV -6.85%E -3.61%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -9.04%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -7.82%E -2.27%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-18 09:54
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -6.36%E -3.33%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -9.04%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -9.16%E -2.69%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-18 09:49
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -10.28%E -5.62%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -9.04%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -9.16%E -2.69%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-18 09:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.57%EV -13.23%E -7.47%K -17.18%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.84%EV -10.73%E -2.92%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.59%EV -11.83%E -3.58%K -5.14%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-18 09:38
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.00%EV -8.81%E -4.74%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -11.46%E -3.14%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -6.49%E -1.85%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-18 09:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -9.30%E -5.03%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -12.67%E -3.52%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -11.83%E -3.58%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-18 09:49
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -9.30%E -5.03%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -12.67%E -3.52%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -11.83%E -3.58%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-18 09:50
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -9.30%E -5.03%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -12.67%E -3.52%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -11.83%E -3.58%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-18 09:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -9.30%E -5.03%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -12.67%E -3.52%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -11.83%E -3.58%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-18 09:50
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.80%EV -12.74%E -7.16%K -16.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.47%EV -13.89%E -3.91%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.73%EV -13.17%E -4.05%K -5.85%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-18 09:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.06%EV -13.23%E -7.47%K -17.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.46%EV -13.89%E -3.91%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.48%EV -12.36%E -3.77%K -5.42%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-18 09:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.29%EV -10.78%E -5.92%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -16.31%E -4.73%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.24%EV -10.49%E -3.13%K -4.47%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-18 09:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.04%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.50%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46%2.0%2026-03-18 09:54