The School of Odds
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Vissel Kobe v FC Machida Zelvia

2026-10-24 06:00 UTC — J League

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vissel Kobe (Local)

Prediction 37.93%2.64fair odd
EV -7.07%
Edge -2.89%
Kelly -4.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.82%37.93%37.93%38.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.422.432.4543.10%41.31%41.15%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Machida Zelvia (Visit)

Prediction 32.34%3.09fair odd
EV -6.86%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -3.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.08%32.34%32.34%32.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.842.852.8836.36%35.21%35.09%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.73%3.36fair odd
EV -6.35%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -2.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.59%29.73%29.73%29.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.093.103.1533.90%32.37%32.26%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Vissel Kobe (Local): 37.93%; FC Machida Zelvia (Visit): 32.34%; Draw: 29.73%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.15, with an expected value of -6.35%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.07%E -2.89%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.36%EV -6.86%E -2.38%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.59%EV -6.35%E -2.01%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-19 06:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.07%E -2.89%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.36%EV -6.86%E -2.38%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.59%EV -6.35%E -2.01%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-19 06:05
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -7.83%E -3.22%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -7.83%E -2.75%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 06:05
BetRivers🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -7.83%E -3.22%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -7.83%E -2.75%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 06:05
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -7.83%E -3.22%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -7.83%E -2.75%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 06:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -7.83%E -3.22%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -7.83%E -2.75%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 06:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -7.83%E -3.22%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -7.83%E -2.75%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 06:05
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -7.83%E -3.22%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -7.83%E -2.75%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 06:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -7.83%E -3.22%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -7.83%E -2.75%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 06:05
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -7.83%E -3.22%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -7.83%E -2.75%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 06:05
betPARX🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -7.83%E -3.22%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -7.83%E -2.75%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 06:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -8.97%E -3.74%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -9.45%E -3.37%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -9.32%E -3.06%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-19 06:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -8.97%E -3.74%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -9.45%E -3.37%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -9.32%E -3.06%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-19 06:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.02%EV -12.00%E -5.17%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.08%EV -11.07%E -4.02%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.90%EV -12.29%E -4.17%K -6.30%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-19 06:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.25I 80.00%NM 34.02%1.25I 80.00%NM 34.02%1.33I 75.19%NM 31.97%135.2%2026-10-19 07:45