The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Vissel Kobe v Fagiano Okayama

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 05:00 UTC

Final: Vissel Kobe 0–3 Fagiano Okayama

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vissel Kobe (Local)

Prediction 57.16%1.75fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -6.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.62%57.08%57.04%58.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.611.601.6764.94%62.10%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fagiano Okayama (Visit)

Prediction 17.70%5.65fair odd
EV -0.549%
Edge -0.098%
Kelly -0.119%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.96%17.75%17.87%18.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.105.005.6221.28%19.60%20.00%17.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.14%3.98fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -0.632%
Kelly -0.851%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.25%25.17%25.10%25.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.633.603.8828.57%27.53%27.78%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vissel Kobe (Local): 57.16%; Fagiano Okayama (Visit): 17.70%; Draw: 25.14%. For Fagiano Okayama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.62, with an expected value of -0.549%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -4.54%E -2.72%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -11.52%E -2.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -9.49%E -2.64%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-06 15:00
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.03%EV -5.11%E -3.08%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.62I 17.79%NM 17.14%EV -0.549%E -0.098%K -0.119%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.83%EV -2.45%E -0.632%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-10 04:05
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.00%EV -5.68%E -3.44%K -8.74%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -7.10%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -5.72%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 05:49
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -5.68%E -3.44%K -8.74%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -7.10%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -6.98%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-10 04:04
BetAnything🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.86%EV -6.25%E -3.81%K -9.77%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -7.98%E -1.53%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -6.98%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-10 04:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -7.40%E -4.57%K -11.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -2.67%E -0.486%K -0.594%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -5.72%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 04:05
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.37%EV -7.40%E -4.57%K -11.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -11.52%E -2.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -9.49%E -2.64%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-10 04:04
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -7.40%E -4.57%K -11.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -11.52%E -2.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -12.00%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-10 04:04
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -7.40%E -4.57%K -11.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -11.52%E -2.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -12.00%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-06 07:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.95%EV -7.97%E -4.95%K -13.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.96%EV -2.67%E -0.486%K -0.594%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.08%EV -6.47%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-10 04:05
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -7.97%E -4.95%K -13.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -11.52%E -2.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.00%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-10 04:05
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.66%EV -8.54%E -5.34%K -14.23%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.41%EV -6.21%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.93%EV -6.98%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-10 00:19
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.66%EV -8.54%E -5.34%K -14.23%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.41%EV -6.21%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.93%EV -6.98%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-10 00:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -8.54%E -5.34%K -14.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -11.52%E -2.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -9.49%E -2.64%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-10 02:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -8.54%E -5.34%K -14.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -11.52%E -2.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -9.49%E -2.64%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-10 02:39
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -8.54%E -5.34%K -14.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -15.06%E -3.14%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.00%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-10 04:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -8.54%E -5.34%K -14.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -15.06%E -3.14%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.00%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-10 04:05
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -8.54%E -5.34%K -14.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -15.06%E -3.14%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.00%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-10 04:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -8.54%E -5.34%K -14.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -15.06%E -3.14%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.00%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-10 04:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.87%EV -9.68%E -6.13%K -16.70%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.42%EV -7.10%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.71%EV -6.98%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-10 00:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.56%EV -9.68%E -6.13%K -16.70%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -11.52%E -2.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.25%EV -5.72%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-10 00:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.12%EV -10.25%E -6.53%K -17.99%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.22%EV -6.21%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%EV -6.98%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-10 04:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 56.97%EV -11.97%E -7.77%K -22.17%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.67%EV -16.83%E -3.58%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -9.49%E -2.64%K -3.65%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-10 00:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.69%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.54%1.9%2026-05-09 23:44