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V-Varen Nagasaki v Vissel Kobe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
V-Varen Nagasaki (Local)
Prediction 19.55%5.11fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -0.409%
Kelly -0.511%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.01
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.27%19.72%19.51%20.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.634.605.0123.26%21.60%21.74%19.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vissel Kobe (Visit)
Prediction 54.85%1.82fair odd
EV -5.11%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -7.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.23%54.74%54.79%55.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.691.701.7361.73%59.28%58.82%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.60%3.91fair odd
EV -0.932%
Edge -0.241%
Kelly -0.325%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.94%25.54%25.70%26.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.563.523.8729.41%28.09%28.37%25.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: V-Varen Nagasaki (Local): 19.55%; Vissel Kobe (Visit): 54.85%; Draw: 25.60%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.87, with an expected value of -0.932%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.01I 19.96%NM 19.27%EV -2.05%E -0.409%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.79%EV -5.11%E -2.95%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.94%EV -0.932%E -0.241%K -0.325%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-17 03:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.33%EV -4.20%E -0.857%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.40%EV -6.21%E -3.63%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -4.00%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-17 03:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -6.16%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.58%EV -7.85%E -4.67%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 24.97%EV -4.26%E -1.14%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-17 03:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -6.16%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.75%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-17 03:08 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -6.16%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.90%EV -7.30%E -4.32%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-17 03:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.64%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-17 03:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -7.13%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.64%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-17 03:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -8.11%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -5.66%E -3.29%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-17 03:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.57%EV -9.09%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.81%EV -8.95%E -5.39%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -9.12%E -2.57%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-17 03:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.37%EV -9.09%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.26%EV -10.59%E -6.50%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -9.12%E -2.57%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-17 03:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -10.07%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-17 03:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -10.07%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-17 03:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -10.07%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-17 03:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -10.07%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-17 03:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -12.02%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -5.11%E -2.95%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-17 03:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -12.02%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.83%EV -8.95%E -5.39%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -6.56%E -1.80%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-17 03:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -12.02%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.70%EV -8.40%E -5.03%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.96%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-17 03:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -12.02%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.70%EV -8.40%E -5.03%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.96%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-17 03:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -12.02%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.70%EV -8.40%E -5.03%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.96%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-17 03:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -12.02%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.70%EV -8.40%E -5.03%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.96%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-17 03:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV -15.34%E -3.54%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-17 02:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.48%EV -15.93%E -3.70%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.36%EV -11.14%E -6.88%K -17.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-17 03:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.62% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.95% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.43% | 2.1% | 2026-05-17 03:55 |