The School of Odds
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V-Varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 05:00 UTC

Final: V-Varen Nagasaki 1–2 Tokyo Verdy

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

V-Varen Nagasaki (Local)

Prediction 38.66%2.59fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.710%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.39%38.69%38.59%40.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.382.402.5447.62%41.94%41.67%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Verdy (Visit)

Prediction 31.92%3.13fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.651%
Kelly -0.966%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.93%31.90%32.00%33.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.872.903.0737.74%34.85%34.48%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.42%3.40fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.612%
Kelly -0.875%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.37%29.41%29.41%30.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.103.103.3334.48%32.30%32.26%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: V-Varen Nagasaki (Local): 38.66%; Tokyo Verdy (Visit): 31.92%; Draw: 29.42%. For V-Varen Nagasaki (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.54, with an expected value of -1.80%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.61%EV -1.80%E -0.710%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.06%EV -4.87%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.33%EV -7.33%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-01 04:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.61%EV -1.80%E -0.710%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.06%EV -4.87%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.33%EV -7.33%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-01 04:40
BetAnything🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.61%EV -1.80%E -0.710%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.06%EV -4.87%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.33%EV -7.33%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-01 04:40
Pinnacle🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 38.39%EV -2.19%E -0.866%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.64%EV -2.00%E -0.651%K -0.966%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.98%EV -4.69%E -1.45%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.0%2026-11-01 04:35
1xBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.97%EV -5.28%E -2.16%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.36%EV -5.83%E -1.98%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.67%EV -2.04%E -0.612%K -0.875%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-26 11:15
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -5.28%E -2.16%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -5.83%E -1.98%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.86%E -1.83%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-01 04:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -5.28%E -2.16%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -5.86%E -1.83%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 04:35
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.28%E -2.16%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -7.33%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 04:39
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -5.28%E -2.16%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -9.02%E -3.17%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.86%E -1.83%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-31 12:04
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -5.28%E -2.16%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -9.02%E -3.17%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.80%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 04:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.35%EV -6.06%E -2.49%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.83%E -1.98%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.06%EV -8.80%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 04:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.35%EV -6.06%E -2.49%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.83%E -1.98%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.06%EV -8.80%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 04:20
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -5.83%E -1.98%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -2.92%E -0.885%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-28 18:25
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.83%E -1.98%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.86%E -1.83%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-31 05:14
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -5.86%E -1.83%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-31 05:15
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.45%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -5.83%E -1.98%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -10.28%E -3.37%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 04:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.45%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -5.83%E -1.98%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -10.28%E -3.37%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 04:15
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.25%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -10.28%E -3.37%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 04:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.25%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -10.28%E -3.37%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 04:20
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.25%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -10.28%E -3.37%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 04:20
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.25%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -10.28%E -3.37%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 04:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.25%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -10.28%E -3.37%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 04:20
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.25%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -10.28%E -3.37%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 04:20
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.25%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -10.28%E -3.37%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 04:19
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.02%E -3.17%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -8.80%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 04:35
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.02%E -3.17%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -8.80%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 04:35
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 04:35
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 04:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 04:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.22%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 04:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.95%EV -7.60%E -3.18%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.32%EV -8.06%E -2.80%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.73%EV -4.69%E -1.45%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-26 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.17%EV -7.99%E -3.36%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.54%EV -8.06%E -2.80%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 04:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.17%EV -7.99%E -3.36%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.54%EV -8.06%E -2.80%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 04:15
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -7.99%E -3.36%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -13.81%E -5.11%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-31 12:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -7.99%E -3.36%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -13.81%E -5.11%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-31 12:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.48%EV -8.38%E -3.53%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.90%EV -13.81%E -5.11%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.61%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-31 12:04
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.48%EV -8.38%E -3.53%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.90%EV -13.81%E -5.11%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.61%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-31 12:04
picklebet_au🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -9.15%E -3.89%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.86%E -1.83%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 04:35
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -9.15%E -3.89%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -9.02%E -3.17%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -5.86%E -1.83%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-28 18:24
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -9.15%E -3.89%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -7.43%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -8.80%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-01 03:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.63%EV -9.15%E -3.89%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -12.21%E -4.44%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -5.86%E -1.83%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.2%2026-11-01 04:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.19%EV -11.08%E -4.82%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.19%EV -10.62%E -3.79%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -7.33%E -2.33%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-31 05:10
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -11.08%E -4.82%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.62%E -3.79%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -8.80%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 02:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -11.08%E -4.82%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.62%E -3.79%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -8.80%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 04:45
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -11.08%E -4.82%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -8.06%E -2.80%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-31 06:09
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -11.08%E -4.82%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -12.21%E -4.44%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.87%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-31 05:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.25%EV -11.08%E -4.82%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.42%EV -10.62%E -3.79%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.33%EV -14.69%E -5.06%K -7.73%G +0.000%13.7%2026-11-01 04:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -13.02%E -5.78%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -5.83%E -1.98%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -5.86%E -1.83%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-01 04:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.92%EV -13.02%E -5.78%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 32.08%EV -12.85%E -4.71%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.00%EV -11.16%E -3.69%K -5.52%G +0.000%14.2%2026-11-01 04:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.66%EV -13.02%E -5.78%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.82%EV -15.41%E -5.81%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.52%EV -10.28%E -3.37%K -5.01%G +0.000%15.0%2026-11-01 04:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.59%EV -18.81%E -8.96%K -17.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.00%EV -12.21%E -4.44%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.41%EV -11.75%E -3.92%K -5.87%G +0.000%17.3%2026-11-01 04:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 39.04%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.94%3.33I 30.03%NM 30.01%0.1%2026-11-01 04:40
Matchbook◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.34%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.56%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.10%0.7%2026-11-01 04:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.69%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.38%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.93%1.3%2026-11-01 04:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.69%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.38%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.93%1.3%2026-11-01 04:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 36.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.78%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%1.7%2026-11-01 04:45
Smarkets◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.05%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.21%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%3.5%2026-11-01 04:45

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