The School of Odds
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V-Varen Nagasaki v Shimizu S Pulse

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

V-Varen Nagasaki (Local)

Prediction 34.91%2.86fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -0.928%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.15%34.96%34.76%35.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.622.622.7940.82%38.10%38.17%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shimizu S Pulse (Visit)

Prediction 36.07%2.77fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.425%
Kelly -0.669%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.98%36.01%36.15%37.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.542.542.7441.67%39.43%39.45%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.01%3.45fair odd
EV -4.25%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.46%29.03%29.09%30.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.133.173.3033.33%31.91%31.50%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: V-Varen Nagasaki (Local): 34.91%; Shimizu S Pulse (Visit): 36.07%; Draw: 29.01%. For Shimizu S Pulse (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.74, with an expected value of -1.16%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 34.70%EV -2.59%E -0.928%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.33%EV -1.16%E -0.425%K -0.669%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.97%EV -6.28%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 03:50
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.09%EV -5.73%E -2.12%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -4.41%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-05 03:24
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -5.73%E -2.12%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -8.02%E -3.14%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 03:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 34.62%EV -6.08%E -2.26%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.54%EV -5.49%E -2.10%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.84%EV -9.47%E -3.04%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 03:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.18%EV -7.48%E -2.82%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -8.02%E -3.14%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -4.25%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-05 03:20
BetAnything🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -7.48%E -2.82%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.21%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 03:49
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -8.53%E -3.25%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -5.49%E -2.10%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-05 03:44
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -8.53%E -3.25%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.53%EV -9.10%E -3.61%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-05 03:19
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -8.53%E -3.25%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.53%EV -9.10%E -3.61%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-05 03:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.73%EV -8.53%E -3.25%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 36.84%EV -10.90%E -4.41%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-05 03:36
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -8.53%E -3.25%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -6.21%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-05 03:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -8.53%E -3.25%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -6.21%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-05 03:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -8.53%E -3.25%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -6.21%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-05 03:24
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -8.53%E -3.25%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -6.21%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-05 03:24
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -9.22%E -3.55%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -9.82%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-05 03:24
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -9.22%E -3.55%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -13.43%E -5.60%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -7.15%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-05 03:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -9.22%E -3.55%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -11.62%E -4.74%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-05 03:29
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -9.22%E -3.55%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -11.62%E -4.74%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-05 03:29
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -9.22%E -3.55%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -11.62%E -4.74%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-05 03:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -9.22%E -3.55%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -11.62%E -4.74%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-05 03:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -10.97%E -4.30%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -11.62%E -4.74%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -4.25%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-05 03:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.73%EV -14.46%E -5.90%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.48%EV -13.43%E -5.60%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -8.60%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-05 03:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 34.96%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.96%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%2.9%2026-04-05 03:50