The School of Odds
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V-Varen Nagasaki v Mito HollyHock

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 08:00 UTC

Final: V-Varen Nagasaki 1–0 Mito HollyHock

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

V-Varen Nagasaki (Local)

Prediction 36.15%2.77fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.65%36.19%36.10%36.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.532.502.6941.67%39.56%40.00%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mito HollyHock (Visit)

Prediction 34.09%2.93fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.15%34.04%34.05%34.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.692.722.8439.22%37.14%36.76%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.77%3.36fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.81%29.77%29.85%30.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.073.103.2433.33%32.55%32.26%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: V-Varen Nagasaki (Local): 36.15%; Mito HollyHock (Visit): 34.09%; Draw: 29.77%. For V-Varen Nagasaki (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.69, with an expected value of -2.77%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 36.00%EV -2.77%E -1.03%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.10%EV -3.20%E -1.13%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.89%EV -3.55%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-30 07:40
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.65%EV -4.21%E -1.59%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.36%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -6.23%E -1.98%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-30 07:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -6.02%E -2.32%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -6.23%E -1.98%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 06:50
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -6.02%E -2.32%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -7.97%E -2.95%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.72%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-30 07:20
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.96%EV -6.74%E -2.61%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.11%EV -7.29%E -2.68%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.93%EV -7.72%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-30 06:50
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.96%EV -6.74%E -2.61%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.11%EV -7.29%E -2.68%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.93%EV -7.72%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-30 06:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.46%EV -7.47%E -2.92%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.19%EV -6.95%E -2.54%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.35%EV -5.34%E -1.68%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-30 07:50
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -9.63%E -3.85%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -7.72%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-30 07:20
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.63%E -3.85%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-30 07:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.63%E -3.85%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-30 07:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.63%E -3.85%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-30 07:30
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.63%E -3.85%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-30 07:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.63%E -3.85%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -11.38%E -4.38%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -6.23%E -1.98%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-30 06:50
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.63%E -3.85%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.97%E -2.95%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-30 07:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -9.63%E -3.85%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -11.38%E -4.38%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-30 07:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -9.63%E -3.85%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -11.38%E -4.38%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-30 07:20
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -9.63%E -3.85%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -11.38%E -4.38%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-30 07:20
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -9.63%E -3.85%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -11.38%E -4.38%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-30 07:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.69%EV -10.36%E -4.18%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.95%EV -8.65%E -3.23%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.35%EV -7.72%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-30 07:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.83%EV -11.44%E -4.67%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.05%EV -9.67%E -3.65%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.72%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-30 07:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.66%EV -13.25%E -5.52%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.50%EV -13.08%E -5.13%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.84%EV -9.21%E -3.02%K -4.49%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-30 06:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.64%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.65%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.71%1.1%2026-05-30 07:30