The School of Odds
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V-Varen Nagasaki v Kyoto Purple Sanga

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

V-Varen Nagasaki (Local)

Prediction 34.13%2.93fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -0.955%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.02%34.07%34.22%35.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.682.682.8540.00%37.36%37.31%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit)

Prediction 37.69%2.65fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.17%37.75%37.67%38.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.262.422.402.5844.25%41.34%41.67%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.18%3.55fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.85%28.17%28.11%29.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.243.203.4032.26%30.91%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: V-Varen Nagasaki (Local): 34.13%; Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit): 37.69%; Draw: 28.18%. For V-Varen Nagasaki (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.85, with an expected value of -2.72%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.95%EV -2.72%E -0.955%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.50%EV -2.76%E -1.07%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.54%EV -4.48%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-18 09:35
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -4.43%E -1.58%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -9.54%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.43%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-18 09:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 33.79%EV -5.79%E -2.10%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.60%EV -6.53%E -2.63%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.61%EV -8.14%E -2.50%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-18 09:50
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.49%EV -6.14%E -2.23%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.20%EV -3.89%E -1.52%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.31%EV -5.61%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-18 09:29
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.14%E -2.23%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.54%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-18 08:30
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -6.14%E -2.23%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -7.66%E -3.13%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-18 09:55
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -6.14%E -2.23%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -7.66%E -3.13%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-18 09:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -6.14%E -2.23%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -7.66%E -3.13%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-18 09:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -6.14%E -2.23%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -7.66%E -3.13%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-18 09:54
BetAnything🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.85%EV -6.82%E -2.50%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.17%EV -3.51%E -1.37%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.20%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-18 08:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65%EV -7.84%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.42%EV -5.77%E -2.31%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -5.61%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-18 03:40
Betsson🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.41%EV -8.53%E -3.18%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -7.66%E -3.13%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-18 03:39
NordicBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.41%EV -8.53%E -3.18%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -7.66%E -3.13%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-18 03:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -10.23%E -3.89%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -10.30%E -4.33%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-18 08:30
Neds🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -10.23%E -3.89%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -10.30%E -4.33%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-18 08:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.20%EV -10.57%E -4.04%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.80%EV -10.67%E -4.50%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-18 08:30
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.20%EV -10.57%E -4.04%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.80%EV -10.67%E -4.50%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-18 08:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -11.26%E -4.33%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -9.54%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -4.20%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-18 03:40
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -11.26%E -4.33%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.54%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-18 08:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 34.15%EV -12.28%E -4.78%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.16%EV -13.31%E -5.79%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 27.69%EV -10.68%E -3.37%K -4.92%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-18 09:34
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.27%EV -12.96%E -5.08%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.99%EV -13.31%E -5.79%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.74%EV -11.24%E -3.57%K -5.23%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-18 03:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.04%EV -12.96%E -5.08%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 38.41%EV -14.82%E -6.56%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.56%EV -11.24%E -3.57%K -5.23%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-18 09:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.01%EV -14.67%E -5.87%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06%EV -13.31%E -5.79%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -8.43%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-18 03:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 33.94%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.91%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%3.0%2026-03-18 08:55