Language:English
V-Varen Nagasaki v Avispa Fukuoka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
V-Varen Nagasaki (Local)
Prediction 44.86%2.23fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -3.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.81%44.88%44.86%45.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.042.052.1351.81%49.13%48.78%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Avispa Fukuoka (Visit)
Prediction 26.43%3.78fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.381%
Kelly -0.520%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.24%26.41%26.44%27.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.443.453.7331.25%29.04%28.99%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.71%3.48fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -0.963%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.82%28.71%28.70%29.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.163.103.3732.79%31.61%32.26%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: V-Varen Nagasaki (Local): 44.86%; Avispa Fukuoka (Visit): 26.43%; Draw: 28.71%. For Avispa Fukuoka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.73, with an expected value of -1.42%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.39%EV -4.45%E -2.09%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.92%EV -1.42%E -0.381%K -0.520%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.69%EV -3.25%E -0.963%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-15 04:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.79%E -2.76%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -4.86%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-15 04:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -5.79%E -2.76%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.69%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-15 04:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -5.79%E -2.76%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.69%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-15 04:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -5.79%E -2.76%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -6.69%E -3.22%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-15 04:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -6.69%E -3.22%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-15 04:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.30%EV -7.59%E -3.68%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.07%EV -5.38%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.63%EV -6.40%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-15 04:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -8.04%E -3.92%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.69%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-15 04:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.04%E -3.92%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-15 03:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.04%E -3.92%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-15 03:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.04%E -3.92%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-15 03:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.04%E -3.92%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-15 03:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -10.28%E -5.14%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -4.86%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-15 04:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -10.28%E -5.14%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -4.86%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-15 04:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -10.28%E -5.14%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -4.86%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-15 04:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -10.28%E -5.14%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -4.86%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-15 04:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -10.28%E -5.14%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.46%E -3.42%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -6.69%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-15 04:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.28%E -5.14%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-03-15 03:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.50%EV -11.18%E -5.64%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -15.43%E -4.82%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.97%EV -9.56%E -3.04%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-03-15 04:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 44.84%EV -12.07%E -6.16%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 28.53%EV -11.57%E -3.76%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-15 04:50 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 44.78%EV -12.97%E -6.69%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.73%EV -14.11%E -4.34%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.48%EV -12.43%E -4.08%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-03-15 04:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 45.09%EV -13.42%E -6.95%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.53%EV -12.43%E -4.08%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-03-15 04:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.11% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40% | 2.1% | 2026-03-15 04:55 |