The School of Odds
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Urawa Red Diamonds v V-Varen Nagasaki

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 06:03 UTC

Final: Urawa Red Diamonds 1–0 V-Varen Nagasaki

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Urawa Red Diamonds (Local)

Prediction 57.43%1.74fair odd
EV +1.08%
Edge +0.616%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%57.41%57.26%60.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.601.601.7665.36%62.44%62.50%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit)

Prediction 18.80%5.32fair odd
EV +16.01%
Edge +2.59%
Kelly +3.10%
Growth +0.496%

assuming max odds 6.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.40%18.84%18.86%20.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.904.906.1722.22%20.42%20.41%16.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.76%4.21fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -0.626%
Kelly -0.828%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.74%23.75%23.89%25.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.843.854.1028.57%26.06%25.97%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Urawa Red Diamonds (Local): 57.43%; V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit): 18.80%; Draw: 23.76%. For V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.32. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.17, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.12%EV -9.25%E -5.86%K -15.96%G +0.000%6.17I 16.21%NM 15.40%EV +16.01%E +2.59%K +3.10%G +0.496%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.48%EV -7.80%E -2.01%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 05:59
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -9.83%E -6.26%K -17.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV +8.11%E +1.41%K +1.71%G +0.139%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -9.70%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-25 06:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.57%EV +1.53%E +0.283%K +0.348%G +0.005%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%EV -2.57%E -0.626%K -0.828%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 06:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.57%EV +1.53%E +0.283%K +0.348%G +0.005%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%EV -2.57%E -0.626%K -0.828%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 06:00
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.95%EV -7.53%E -4.68%K -12.35%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.91%EV -0.350%E -0.066%K -0.081%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -2.57%E -0.626%K -0.828%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 05:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.01%EV -6.96%E -4.29%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.90%EV -1.29%E -0.246%K -0.303%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-25 06:00
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.85%EV -7.53%E -4.68%K -12.35%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.26%EV -4.11%E -0.806%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-25 06:01
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.97%EV -10.40%E -6.67%K -18.58%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.04%EV -4.11%E -0.806%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -4.94%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-25 05:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.90%EV -11.55%E -7.50%K -21.39%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 17.96%EV -5.05%E -1.00%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.14%EV -6.84%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-25 06:01
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.95%EV -3.51%E -2.09%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.13%EV -5.99%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.92%EV -4.94%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-25 05:58
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.72%EV -5.23%E -3.17%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -5.99%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.23%EV -2.57%E -0.626%K -0.828%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-25 05:59
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.34%EV -6.38%E -3.92%K -10.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -5.99%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 06:00
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -6.96%E -4.29%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -5.99%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -9.70%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-25 06:00
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -5.99%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -8.51%E -2.21%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 05:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.30%EV -6.38%E -3.92%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -7.87%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -6.13%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 05:52
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.30%EV -6.38%E -3.92%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -7.87%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -6.13%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 05:52
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -7.53%E -4.68%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.87%EV -7.87%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 05:52
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.80%EV -7.87%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 05:52
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.80%EV -7.87%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 05:52
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.80%EV -7.87%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 05:52
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.80%EV -7.87%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 05:52
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.80%EV -7.87%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 05:52
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.80%EV -7.87%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 05:52
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.80%EV -7.87%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 05:51
picklebet_au🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.40%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -7.87%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -8.51%E -2.21%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 06:00
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.22%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.68%EV -7.87%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -9.70%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-25 05:59
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.22%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.68%EV -7.87%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -9.70%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-25 06:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.69%EV -10.98%E -7.08%K -19.96%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -7.87%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -4.94%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-25 06:00
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -7.53%E -4.68%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -9.75%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -10.88%E -2.90%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 05:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -7.53%E -4.68%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -9.75%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -10.88%E -2.90%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 05:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -7.53%E -4.68%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -9.75%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -10.88%E -2.90%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 05:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.49%EV -9.25%E -5.86%K -15.96%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -9.75%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -8.51%E -2.21%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-25 05:52
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.49%EV -9.25%E -5.86%K -15.96%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -9.75%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -8.51%E -2.21%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-25 05:52
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.94%EV -6.96%E -4.29%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -9.75%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -14.45%E -4.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-25 06:00
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -10.69%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.70%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-25 06:01
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.17%EV -9.83%E -6.26%K -17.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.90%EV -10.69%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.93%EV -10.88%E -2.90%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-25 06:01
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.83%EV +1.08%E +0.616%K +1.43%G +0.015%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.36%EV -10.88%E -2.30%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.81%EV -7.56%E -1.94%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-25 05:52
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.91%EV -10.40%E -6.67%K -18.58%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.22%EV -11.63%E -2.47%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.87%EV -6.13%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-25 06:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.50%EV -12.13%E -7.93%K -22.88%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.72%EV -11.63%E -2.47%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.78%EV -12.07%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-25 05:52
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.30%EV -10.98%E -7.08%K -19.96%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.77%EV -12.57%E -2.70%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.93%EV -16.83%E -4.81%K -6.73%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-25 06:00
Bet Right🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.93%EV -5.81%E -3.54%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -13.51%E -2.94%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -9.70%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 05:59
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -13.51%E -2.94%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -14.45%E -4.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-25 05:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -13.51%E -2.94%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -14.45%E -4.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-25 06:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -13.51%E -2.94%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -14.45%E -4.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-25 05:59
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -13.51%E -2.94%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -14.45%E -4.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-25 06:00
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -13.51%E -2.94%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -14.45%E -4.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-25 06:01
Betclic (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.04%EV -11.55%E -7.50%K -21.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.09%EV -13.51%E -2.94%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.87%EV -12.55%E -3.41%K -4.68%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-25 05:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.80%EV -6.96%E -4.29%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -15.39%E -3.42%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -10.88%E -2.90%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-25 05:59
BoyleSports🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.29%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -15.39%E -3.42%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -9.70%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-25 06:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.23%EV -11.55%E -7.50%K -21.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.58%EV -15.39%E -3.42%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.19%EV -9.70%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-25 06:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.49%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.97%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54%1.2%2026-10-25 06:01
Matchbook◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.44%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%1.4%2026-10-25 06:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 58.93%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.29%2.2%2026-10-25 06:01
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 58.93%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.29%2.2%2026-10-25 06:01
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.23%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.47%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.30%2.9%2026-10-25 06:01
Smarkets◎1.63I 61.35%NM 58.65%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.04%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.32%4.6%2026-10-25 06:01