The School of Odds
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Urawa Red Diamonds v Tokyo Verdy

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 05:00 UTC

Final: Urawa Red Diamonds 1–1 Tokyo Verdy

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Urawa Red Diamonds (Local)

Prediction 45.54%2.20fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.91%45.48%45.54%46.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.022.002.1352.08%49.53%50.00%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Verdy (Visit)

Prediction 25.23%3.96fair odd
EV +0.397%
Edge +0.100%
Kelly +0.133%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.24%25.27%25.14%26.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.573.583.9830.30%28.05%27.97%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.24%3.42fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.11%29.25%29.31%30.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.103.3033.33%31.80%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Urawa Red Diamonds (Local): 45.54%; Tokyo Verdy (Visit): 25.23%; Draw: 29.24%. For Tokyo Verdy (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.96. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.98, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.397%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.35%EV -3.01%E -1.41%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.27%EV +0.397%E +0.100%K +0.133%G +0.001%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.38%EV -7.03%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-12 04:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.72%EV -7.10%E -3.48%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.67%EV -4.65%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -7.90%E -2.51%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 04:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.29%EV -8.01%E -3.97%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -5.40%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 04:43
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -8.92%E -4.46%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -5.40%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -12.29%E -4.10%K -6.14%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 04:40
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.37%E -2.08%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -6.67%E -1.80%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 04:54
BetAnything🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -6.67%E -1.80%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -6.44%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 04:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.40%EV -10.75%E -5.48%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -7.93%E -2.17%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.69%EV -7.32%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 04:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.70%EV -12.11%E -6.28%K -13.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -7.93%E -2.17%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -7.90%E -2.51%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-12 04:45
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -8.92%E -4.46%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.19%E -2.55%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 04:55
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -8.92%E -4.46%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.19%E -2.55%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 04:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.15%EV -9.84%E -4.97%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -10.45%E -2.94%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -4.98%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-12 04:44
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -11.71%E -3.35%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -3.52%E -1.07%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 04:40
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -4.37%E -2.08%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.71%E -3.35%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 04:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -11.71%E -3.35%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 04:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -6.65%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -11.71%E -3.35%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 04:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.79%EV -12.57%E -6.55%K -13.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.86%EV -14.23%E -4.19%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-12 04:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -8.92%E -4.46%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -16.76%E -5.08%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-12 04:40
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -8.92%E -4.46%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -16.76%E -5.08%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-12 04:40
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -8.92%E -4.46%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -16.76%E -5.08%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-12 04:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -8.92%E -4.46%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -16.76%E -5.08%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-12 04:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.50%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.75%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.74%1.0%2026-04-12 04:55