The School of Odds
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Urawa Red Diamonds v Mito HollyHock

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Urawa Red Diamonds (Local)

Prediction 53.64%1.86fair odd
EV -4.52%
Edge -2.54%
Kelly -5.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.23%53.60%53.74%54.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.711.711.7861.35%58.35%58.48%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mito HollyHock (Visit)

Prediction 20.36%4.91fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -0.475%
Kelly -0.600%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.71%20.34%20.30%23.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.724.464.504.8026.88%22.44%22.22%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.00%3.85fair odd
EV +0.095%
Edge +0.025%
Kelly +0.033%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.12%26.06%25.96%27.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.223.453.453.8531.06%28.97%28.99%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Urawa Red Diamonds (Local): 53.64%; Mito HollyHock (Visit): 20.36%; Draw: 26.00%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.846. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.850, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.095%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.34%EV -4.52%E -2.54%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.71I 21.23%NM 20.54%EV -4.11%E -0.873%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.12%EV +0.095%E +0.025%K +0.033%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-07 05:40
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.37%EV -6.66%E -3.83%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -2.28%E -0.475%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.92%EV -5.10%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 05:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.20%EV -7.73%E -4.50%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -5.10%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 05:48
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.20%E -4.16%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -8.39%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 05:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.61%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -10.42%E -2.37%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -7.70%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-07 05:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -6.12%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-07 05:45
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.73%EV -7.73%E -4.50%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.87%EV -5.33%E -1.15%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 05:44
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.73%EV -7.73%E -4.50%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.87%EV -5.33%E -1.15%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 05:40
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.66%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -8.39%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 05:39
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.25%EV -5.05%E -2.85%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -8.39%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -11.60%E -3.41%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-07 05:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.09%EV -10.95%E -6.60%K -16.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.98%EV -14.49%E -3.45%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -11.60%E -3.41%K -4.84%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-07 05:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 52.65%EV -11.49%E -6.96%K -17.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.19%EV -16.53%E -4.03%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.17%EV -13.68%E -4.12%K -5.90%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-07 05:41
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -8.39%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.18%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-07 05:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -8.39%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.18%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-07 05:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -8.39%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.18%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-07 05:40
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -8.39%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.18%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-07 05:40
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.39%EV -12.56%E -7.71%K -19.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.24%EV -12.46%E -2.90%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.18%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-07 05:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.23%EV -4.52%E -2.54%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 23.56%EV -24.27%E -6.52%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.21%EV -16.28%E -5.06%K -7.34%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-07 05:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.