The School of Odds
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Urawa Red Diamonds v JEF United Chiba

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 10:33 UTC

Final: Urawa Red Diamonds 3–2 JEF United Chiba

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Urawa Red Diamonds (Local)

Prediction 62.91%1.59fair odd
EV +0.653%
Edge +0.408%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.35%62.86%62.97%65.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.491.481.6074.63%67.22%67.57%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

JEF United Chiba (Visit)

Prediction 15.72%6.36fair odd
EV +2.19%
Edge +0.337%
Kelly +0.398%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.69%15.83%15.62%18.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.585.506.5021.05%17.93%18.18%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.37%4.68fair odd
EV +1.51%
Edge +0.317%
Kelly +0.402%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.15%21.31%21.40%23.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.194.204.7526.32%23.88%23.81%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Urawa Red Diamonds (Local): 62.91%; JEF United Chiba (Visit): 15.72%; Draw: 21.37%. For JEF United Chiba (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.36. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.12%EV -7.52%E -5.12%K -16.01%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.73%EV +2.19%E +0.337%K +0.398%G +0.009%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.15%EV +1.51%E +0.317%K +0.402%G +0.006%4.5%2026-10-21 10:28
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.76%EV -6.27%E -4.21%K -12.79%G +0.000%6.44I 15.53%NM 14.75%EV +1.25%E +0.194%K +0.229%G +0.003%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.49%EV -5.55%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 10:29
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.36%EV -5.64%E -3.76%K -11.27%G +0.000%6.41I 15.60%NM 15.06%EV +0.776%E +0.121%K +0.143%G +0.001%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.58%EV +0.225%E +0.048%K +0.061%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-21 10:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.08%EV -6.90%E -4.66%K -14.37%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -2.53%E -0.407%K -0.486%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -1.70%E -0.369%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 10:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.08%EV -6.90%E -4.66%K -14.37%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -2.53%E -0.407%K -0.486%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -1.70%E -0.369%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 10:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.07%EV -11.93%E -8.52%K -29.82%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.69%EV -2.53%E -0.407%K -0.486%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -3.84%E -0.852%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:55
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -8.78%E -6.06%K -19.52%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.06%EV -4.10%E -0.672%K -0.803%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -9.18%E -2.16%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-21 10:00
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -8.78%E -6.06%K -19.52%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.06%EV -4.10%E -0.672%K -0.803%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -9.18%E -2.16%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-21 10:00
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.17%EV -6.90%E -4.66%K -14.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -5.67%E -0.945%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -5.97%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-21 09:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.02%EV -6.90%E -4.66%K -14.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -5.67%E -0.945%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.44%EV -7.04%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-21 10:00
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.95%EV -6.90%E -4.66%K -14.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -5.67%E -0.945%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.52%EV -7.47%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 10:31
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.86%EV -6.90%E -4.66%K -14.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -5.67%E -0.945%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -8.11%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-21 10:04
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.86%EV -6.90%E -4.66%K -14.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -5.67%E -0.945%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -8.11%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-21 10:31
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.65%EV -8.78%E -6.06%K -19.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.67%E -0.945%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -5.97%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-21 10:00
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.34%EV -9.41%E -6.54%K -21.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -5.67%E -0.945%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.46%EV -9.18%E -2.16%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-21 10:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.50%EV -10.67%E -7.51%K -25.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -5.67%E -0.945%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -10.25%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-21 10:29
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -5.64%E -3.76%K -11.27%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -8.81%E -1.52%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -14.52%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-21 10:31
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.59%EV -6.27%E -4.21%K -12.79%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV -9.60%E -1.67%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -5.97%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-21 10:31
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.44%EV -6.90%E -4.66%K -14.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.07%EV -9.60%E -1.67%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -8.11%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 09:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.99%EV -9.41%E -6.54%K -21.39%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.91%EV -10.39%E -1.82%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV -8.11%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-21 10:31
Winamax (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.65%EV -8.78%E -6.06%K -19.52%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.22%EV -11.96%E -2.14%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -8.11%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-21 10:31
Betclic (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.67%EV -11.93%E -8.52%K -29.82%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.67%EV -11.96%E -2.14%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.66%EV -13.45%E -3.32%K -4.41%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-21 10:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 63.69%EV -15.70%E -11.72%K -46.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.24%EV -11.96%E -2.14%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.07%EV -13.45%E -3.32%K -4.41%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-21 10:05
picklebet_au🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.82%EV -5.64%E -3.76%K -11.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -13.53%E -2.46%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -7.04%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-21 10:31
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.01%EV -6.90%E -4.66%K -14.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -13.53%E -2.46%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -14.52%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-21 10:31
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.41%E -6.54%K -21.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -13.53%E -2.46%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -10.25%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-21 10:00
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.41%E -6.54%K -21.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -13.53%E -2.46%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -10.25%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-21 10:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.41%E -6.54%K -21.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -13.53%E -2.46%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -10.25%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-21 10:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.41%E -6.54%K -21.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -13.53%E -2.46%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -10.25%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-21 10:29
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -9.41%E -6.54%K -21.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -13.53%E -2.46%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -14.52%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-21 10:04
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -9.41%E -6.54%K -21.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -13.53%E -2.46%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -14.52%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-21 10:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.84%EV -9.41%E -6.54%K -21.39%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.96%EV -17.46%E -3.33%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -10.25%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-21 10:31
Winamax (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.42%EV -9.41%E -6.54%K -21.39%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.01%EV -18.25%E -3.51%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -12.38%E -3.02%K -3.99%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-21 10:31
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.35%EV +0.653%E +0.408%K +1.09%G +0.007%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.31%EV -19.82%E -3.89%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -14.52%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 09:36
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.35%EV +0.653%E +0.408%K +1.09%G +0.007%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.31%EV -19.82%E -3.89%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -14.52%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 09:36
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -1.23%E -0.786%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -21.39%E -4.28%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -14.52%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-21 09:25
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -1.23%E -0.786%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -21.39%E -4.28%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -14.52%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-21 09:25
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.43%EV -1.23%E -0.786%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -21.39%E -4.28%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.22%EV -15.59%E -3.95%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-21 09:36
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.58%EV -1.86%E -1.19%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -21.39%E -4.28%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -15.59%E -3.95%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-21 09:36
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.58%EV -1.86%E -1.19%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -21.39%E -4.28%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -15.59%E -3.95%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-21 09:36
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.58%EV -1.86%E -1.19%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -21.39%E -4.28%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -15.59%E -3.95%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-21 09:35
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.58%EV -1.86%E -1.19%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -21.39%E -4.28%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -15.59%E -3.95%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-21 09:36
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.58%EV -1.86%E -1.19%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -21.39%E -4.28%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -15.59%E -3.95%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-21 09:36
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.58%EV -1.86%E -1.19%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -21.39%E -4.28%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -15.59%E -3.95%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-21 09:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.37%EV -1.86%E -1.19%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -22.96%E -4.69%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -15.59%E -3.95%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.37%EV -1.86%E -1.19%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -22.96%E -4.69%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -15.59%E -3.95%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.46%EV -5.64%E -3.76%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.46%EV -25.32%E -5.33%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.08%EV -18.79%E -4.95%K -6.71%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-21 09:36
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.91%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-10-21 10:31
Matchbook◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.64%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.45%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.91%1.8%2026-10-21 10:31
Kalshi◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.63%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.73%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.64%1.8%2026-10-21 09:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.07%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.76%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.17%2.7%2026-10-21 10:31
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.07%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.76%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.17%2.7%2026-10-21 10:31
Smarkets◎1.51I 66.23%NM 63.63%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.35%4.1%2026-10-21 10:31