The School of Odds
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Urawa Red Diamonds v FC Tokyo

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 07:00 UTC

Final: Urawa Red Diamonds 0–0 FC Tokyo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Urawa Red Diamonds (Local)

Prediction 33.01%3.03fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.50%33.04%32.99%33.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.782.782.9038.46%35.95%35.97%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Tokyo (Visit)

Prediction 37.02%2.70fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.858%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%37.07%37.11%38.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.462.452.6442.55%40.64%40.82%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.97%3.34fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -0.898%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.60%29.89%29.90%30.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.073.053.2433.33%32.56%32.79%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Urawa Red Diamonds (Local): 33.01%; FC Tokyo (Visit): 37.02%; Draw: 29.97%. For FC Tokyo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.70. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.64, with an expected value of -2.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.41%EV -4.26%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.70%EV -2.26%E -0.858%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.90%EV -2.91%E -0.898%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-16 06:50
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.70%EV -4.26%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.60%E -2.19%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.11%EV -5.61%E -1.78%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 06:40
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.91%E -2.08%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -9.30%E -3.80%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.11%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-14 14:41
BetAnything🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.91%E -2.08%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -9.30%E -3.80%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.11%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 06:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 32.95%EV -6.57%E -2.32%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.16%EV -7.08%E -2.82%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.89%EV -6.50%E -2.08%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 06:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.57%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -5.60%E -2.19%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -7.10%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 06:50
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -7.57%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.45%E -2.98%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 06:55
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -7.57%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.45%E -2.98%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 06:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -7.57%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.45%E -2.98%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 06:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -7.57%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.45%E -2.98%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 06:55
Betsson🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.17%EV -8.23%E -2.96%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.66%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.23%EV -8.60%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 06:50
NordicBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.17%EV -8.23%E -2.96%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.66%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.23%EV -8.60%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 06:50
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.22%E -3.35%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -11.15%E -4.65%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -4.11%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-16 06:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.07%EV -9.22%E -3.35%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.12%EV -9.30%E -3.80%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.82%EV -8.60%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 06:53
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -9.22%E -3.35%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.60%EV -11.15%E -4.65%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.59%EV -8.60%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-16 06:49
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -9.22%E -3.35%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -11.15%E -4.65%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-16 06:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -9.22%E -3.35%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -11.89%E -5.00%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-16 04:45
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -9.22%E -3.35%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -11.89%E -5.00%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-16 04:45
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.50%EV -9.22%E -3.35%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.71%EV -12.26%E -5.17%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-16 04:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.50%EV -9.22%E -3.35%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.71%EV -12.26%E -5.17%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-16 04:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.79%EV -10.87%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.24%EV -9.30%E -3.80%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.97%EV -5.61%E -1.78%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 06:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.64%EV -14.17%E -5.45%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.21%EV -13.00%E -5.53%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.15%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-16 06:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.25%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%2.1%2026-05-16 06:45