The School of Odds
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Urawa Red Diamonds v FC Machida Zelvia

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 07:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Urawa Red Diamonds (Local)

Prediction 33.01%3.03fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -0.999%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.80%33.06%33.03%34.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.772.792.9439.22%36.12%35.84%34.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Machida Zelvia (Visit)

Prediction 36.36%2.75fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -0.815%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.78%36.35%36.31%37.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.362.502.502.6942.37%39.98%40.00%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.63%3.27fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.33%30.59%30.66%31.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.003.003.1534.48%33.38%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Urawa Red Diamonds (Local): 33.01%; FC Machida Zelvia (Visit): 36.36%; Draw: 30.63%. For FC Machida Zelvia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.69, with an expected value of -2.19%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.91%EV -2.94%E -0.999%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.97%EV -2.19%E -0.815%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.11%EV -4.75%E -1.53%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-22 06:50
BetAnything🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.45%EV -2.94%E -0.999%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.27%EV -6.92%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.29%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 06:49
Betway🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -4.92%E -1.71%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -9.10%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 06:35
888sport🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -4.92%E -1.71%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -9.10%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 06:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -4.92%E -1.71%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -9.10%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 06:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -4.92%E -1.71%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -9.10%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 06:49
William Hill🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -4.92%E -1.71%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -9.10%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 06:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.63%EV -5.58%E -1.95%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.46%EV -6.92%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.91%EV -7.51%E -2.49%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 06:34
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -5.91%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -5.46%E -2.10%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 06:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.56%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.46%E -2.10%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 06:29
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -7.56%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.10%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-22 06:33
NordicBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.46%EV -8.22%E -2.96%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.05%EV -6.19%E -2.40%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 06:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -10.92%E -4.46%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-22 06:29
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -10.92%E -4.46%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-22 06:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -10.92%E -4.46%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-22 06:29
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -10.92%E -4.46%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-22 06:30
Betsson🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.44%EV -11.52%E -4.30%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.78%EV -6.19%E -2.40%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-18 10:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -12.51%E -4.72%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -9.10%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-22 06:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.37%EV -13.17%E -5.01%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -12.74%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.06%EV -10.57%E -3.62%K -5.51%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-22 06:33
Unibet (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.18%EV -13.50%E -5.15%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 36.84%EV -14.19%E -6.01%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.98%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-22 06:39
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.56%EV -14.16%E -5.45%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.35%EV -12.74%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.09%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-22 06:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.17%EV -15.81%E -6.20%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.30%EV -12.74%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.53%EV -9.65%E -3.27%K -4.95%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-22 06:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.