The School of Odds
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Urawa Red Diamonds v Fagiano Okayama

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 07:00 UTC

Final: Urawa Red Diamonds 0–2 Fagiano Okayama

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Urawa Red Diamonds (Local)

Prediction 50.13%1.99fair odd
EV -4.25%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -4.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.54%50.08%50.23%51.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.831.851.9156.82%54.54%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fagiano Okayama (Visit)

Prediction 22.10%4.53fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.323%
Kelly -0.417%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.53%22.15%21.98%22.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.134.184.4625.97%24.20%23.95%22.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.77%3.60fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -0.882%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.75%27.77%27.79%28.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.293.303.4931.25%30.39%30.30%28.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Urawa Red Diamonds (Local): 50.13%; Fagiano Okayama (Visit): 22.10%; Draw: 27.77%. For Fagiano Okayama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.46, with an expected value of -1.44%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.62%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.68%EV -1.44%E -0.323%K -0.417%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.70%EV -3.08%E -0.882%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.4%2026-06-06 06:50
BetAnything🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -5.75%E -3.06%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-06 06:39
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -6.26%E -3.35%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -4.98%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-06 06:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -6.26%E -3.35%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-06 06:49
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.70%EV -6.26%E -3.35%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.35%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-06 06:28
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -6.08%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -6.97%E -2.08%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-06 06:30
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.10%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -6.08%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.35%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-06 06:29
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.10%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -6.08%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.35%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-06 06:29
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -11.13%E -3.48%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-06 06:49
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -11.13%E -3.48%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-06 06:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -11.13%E -3.48%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-06 06:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -11.13%E -3.48%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-06 06:49
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -8.26%E -4.51%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -8.35%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-06 06:19
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -8.26%E -4.51%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -8.35%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-06 05:18
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.53%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.91%EV -8.29%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -8.35%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-06 06:36
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-06 06:30
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -11.13%E -3.48%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-06 06:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -11.13%E -3.48%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-06 06:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -11.13%E -3.48%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-06 06:30
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -11.13%E -3.48%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-06 06:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.08%EV -11.27%E -6.37%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.53%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.35%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-06 06:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.03%EV -11.77%E -6.69%K -15.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.87%EV -14.92%E -3.88%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -9.74%E -3.00%K -4.33%G +0.000%13.6%2026-06-06 06:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.76%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-06-06 05:39