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Tokyo Verdy v Yokohama F Marinos

Kickoff: 2026-05-24 05:00 UTC

Final: Tokyo Verdy 0–6 Yokohama F Marinos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tokyo Verdy (Local)

Prediction 35.77%2.80fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.11%35.81%35.78%36.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.552.502.7141.67%39.28%40.00%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yokohama F Marinos (Visit)

Prediction 33.43%2.99fair odd
EV -4.72%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.81%33.42%33.41%34.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.732.752.8538.46%36.58%36.36%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.80%3.25fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.73%30.77%30.80%31.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.872.962.983.1434.84%33.75%33.56%31.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Verdy (Local): 35.77%; Yokohama F Marinos (Visit): 33.43%; Draw: 30.80%. For Tokyo Verdy (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.71, with an expected value of -3.06%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.54%EV -3.06%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.79%EV -4.72%E -1.66%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.67%EV -3.30%E -1.05%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-24 04:40
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -5.21%E -1.96%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -4.72%E -1.66%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 04:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.32%EV -5.56%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.18%EV -6.06%E -2.16%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.50%EV -8.84%E -2.99%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-24 04:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.39%E -2.28%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -6.07%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-24 03:30
BetAnything🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.39%E -2.28%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -6.07%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-24 04:50
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -8.06%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-24 04:50
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-24 04:30
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.19%EV -8.06%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.70%EV -11.30%E -3.92%K -6.01%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-24 04:50
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.87%EV -7.71%E -2.99%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.29%EV -7.06%E -2.54%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-24 03:30
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.87%EV -7.71%E -2.99%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.29%EV -7.06%E -2.54%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-24 03:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.72%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.85%EV -6.07%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-24 03:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.38%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.31%EV -8.73%E -3.20%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-24 04:37
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -8.06%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -10.69%E -3.69%K -5.62%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-24 04:20
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -8.06%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -10.69%E -3.69%K -5.62%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-24 04:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -8.06%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -10.69%E -3.69%K -5.62%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-24 04:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -8.06%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -10.69%E -3.69%K -5.62%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-24 04:20
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -12.08%E -4.59%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -11.30%E -3.92%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-24 04:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -12.08%E -4.59%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -11.30%E -3.92%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-24 04:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.77%EV -12.41%E -4.74%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.83%EV -11.61%E -4.05%K -6.21%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-24 04:50
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.77%EV -12.41%E -4.74%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.83%EV -11.61%E -4.05%K -6.21%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-24 04:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -12.36%E -5.05%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -8.06%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-24 03:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.54%EV -14.15%E -5.90%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.73%EV -13.08%E -5.03%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.73%EV -9.15%E -3.10%K -4.69%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-24 03:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.