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Tokyo Verdy v Urawa Red Diamonds
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tokyo Verdy (Local)
Prediction 23.51%4.25fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -0.942%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.08%23.53%23.46%24.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.863.904.0927.40%25.90%25.64%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit)
Prediction 46.52%2.15fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -3.46%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.60%46.47%46.59%47.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.961.952.0754.05%51.00%51.28%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.97%3.34fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.702%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.96%29.99%29.95%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.043.003.2633.90%32.85%33.33%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Verdy (Local): 23.51%; Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit): 46.52%; Draw: 29.97%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.26, with an expected value of -2.29%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.64%EV -3.85%E -0.942%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.71%EV -3.71%E -1.79%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.66%EV -2.29%E -0.702%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-14 06:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.97%E -1.49%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -6.96%E -3.48%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -5.58%E -1.77%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-14 06:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -5.97%E -1.49%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -6.96%E -3.48%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.08%E -2.28%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-14 06:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.97%E -1.49%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -6.96%E -3.48%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.08%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-14 05:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -7.14%E -1.81%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -6.96%E -3.48%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -7.08%E -2.28%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 06:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.31%EV -7.14%E -1.81%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.50%EV -7.89%E -3.99%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -8.58%E -2.81%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-14 05:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.31%EV -7.14%E -1.81%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.50%EV -7.89%E -3.99%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -8.58%E -2.81%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-14 05:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 23.77%EV -7.85%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.36%EV -6.50%E -3.23%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.87%EV -6.48%E -2.08%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-14 06:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -8.32%E -2.13%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.34%EV -6.96%E -3.48%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -7.08%E -2.28%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-14 05:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -8.32%E -2.13%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -9.29%E -4.76%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -10.08%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-14 05:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -8.32%E -2.13%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -9.29%E -4.76%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -10.08%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-14 05:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -8.32%E -2.13%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -9.29%E -4.76%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -10.08%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-14 05:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -8.32%E -2.13%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -9.29%E -4.76%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -10.08%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-14 05:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.15%EV -9.50%E -2.47%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.15%EV -12.08%E -6.39%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -10.08%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-14 06:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.01%EV -10.67%E -2.81%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.03%EV -9.75%E -5.03%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.96%EV -5.58%E -1.77%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-14 06:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.67%E -2.81%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.96%E -3.48%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -10.08%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-14 06:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -10.67%E -2.81%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.45%EV -13.94%E -7.53%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 29.45%EV -10.68%E -3.58%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-14 06:10 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -11.85%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.76%EV -12.54%E -6.67%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -11.58%E -3.93%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-14 06:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -13.02%E -3.52%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -9.29%E -4.76%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -10.08%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-14 06:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -13.02%E -3.52%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -9.29%E -4.76%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -10.08%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-14 06:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -13.02%E -3.52%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -9.29%E -4.76%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -10.08%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-14 05:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -13.02%E -3.52%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -9.29%E -4.76%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -10.08%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-14 06:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.17%EV -14.20%E -3.89%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.43%EV -11.61%E -6.11%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -10.08%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-03-14 06:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.28% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05% | 3.0% | 2026-03-14 06:05 |