Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tokyo Verdy v Kashima Antlers

Inicio: 2026-08-29 10:00 UTC

Final: Tokyo Verdy 0–2 Kashima Antlers

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tokyo Verdy (Local)

Predicción 22.17%4.51momio equitativo
EV +2.42%
Ventaja +0.525%
Kelly +0.670%
Crecimiento +0.016%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.55%22.19%22.16%23.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.804.134.184.6226.32%24.23%23.95%21.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Kashima Antlers (Visitante)

Predicción 48.30%2.07momio equitativo
EV -3.39%
Ventaja -1.70%
Kelly -3.39%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.78%48.34%48.30%49.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.841.911.902.0054.35%52.46%52.49%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.53%3.39momio equitativo
EV +0.388%
Ventaja +0.114%
Kelly +0.162%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.00%29.47%29.54%30.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.143.153.4033.33%31.82%31.75%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Tokyo Verdy (Local): 22.17%; Kashima Antlers (Visitante): 48.30%; Empate: 29.53%. Para Tokyo Verdy (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.51. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.62, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.42%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯4.62I 21.65%NM 20.55%EV +2.42%E +0.525%K +0.670%G +0.016%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.20%EV -6.77%E -3.51%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.24%EV -7.29%E -2.32%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 09:55
Pinnacle🎯4.44I 22.52%NM 21.76%EV -1.57%E -0.353%K -0.455%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -3.39%E -1.70%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.92%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-29 09:55
LowVig.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.25%EV -4.67%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.84%EV -3.39%E -1.70%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.90%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-29 09:55
BetOnline.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.25%EV -4.67%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.84%EV -3.39%E -1.70%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.90%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-29 09:55
BetAnything🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.25%EV -4.67%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.84%EV -3.39%E -1.70%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.90%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-29 09:55
SportsBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -4.67%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.25%EV -5.81%E -2.98%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -6.99%E -2.22%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 09:29
FanDuel🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -4.67%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.02%EV -5.81%E -2.98%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 09:30
Tipico (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -4.67%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.07%EV -9.67%E -5.17%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 09:50
Unibet (UK)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -5.78%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.61%EV -6.77%E -3.51%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 08:10
Betsson🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -5.78%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.05%EV -7.26%E -3.78%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -9.95%E -3.26%K -4.85%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-29 08:10
Coolbet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.33%EV -6.77%E -3.51%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV +0.388%E +0.114%K +0.162%G +0.001%5.0%2026-08-29 09:45
DraftKings🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -5.81%E -2.98%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 09:55
Svenska Spel🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -7.74%E -4.05%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.04%E -1.24%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 09:10
ATG (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -7.74%E -4.05%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.04%E -1.24%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 09:10
BetRivers🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -9.19%E -4.89%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 09:05
Grosvenor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -9.19%E -4.89%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 09:05
Unibet (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -9.19%E -4.89%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 09:05
TABtouch🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -9.19%E -4.89%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 09:05
Unibet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -9.19%E -4.89%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 09:10
Casumo🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -9.19%E -4.89%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 09:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -9.19%E -4.89%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 09:10
Unibet (NL)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -9.19%E -4.89%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 09:10
betPARX🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -9.19%E -4.89%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 09:10
NordicBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.19%EV -8.22%E -4.33%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.02%EV -9.95%E -3.26%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 08:10
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -9.67%E -5.17%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -11.42%E -3.81%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-29 08:11
Betclic (FR)🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 21.90%EV -8.00%E -1.93%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.60%EV -9.67%E -5.17%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.51%EV -9.06%E -2.94%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 09:35
Unibet (FR)🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 21.77%EV -8.00%E -1.93%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.09%EV -11.12%E -6.04%K -13.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 09:35
Bovada🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -9.10%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.74%EV -5.81%E -2.98%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -6.99%E -2.22%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 09:55
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -9.10%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.22%EV -6.77%E -3.51%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 08:10
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -9.10%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.03%EV -7.74%E -4.05%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 08:15
LiveScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -9.10%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.92%EV -10.15%E -5.46%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -6.99%E -2.22%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-29 09:10
Virgin Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -9.10%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.92%EV -10.15%E -5.46%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -6.99%E -2.22%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-29 09:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.16%EV -9.10%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.56%EV -7.74%E -4.05%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -11.42%E -3.81%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-29 09:45
PMU (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -9.10%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.06%EV -10.64%E -5.75%K -12.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -6.99%E -2.22%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 09:10
Marathon Bet🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.02%EV -10.21%E -2.52%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -7.26%E -3.78%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -3.16%E -0.962%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 09:50
PlayUp🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -5.81%E -2.98%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -6.99%E -2.22%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 09:50
Bet Right🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.82%EV -9.19%E -4.89%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -4.04%E -1.24%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 09:46
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.81%E -2.98%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.42%E -3.81%K -5.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 09:50
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.81%E -2.98%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.42%E -3.81%K -5.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 09:55
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.81%E -2.98%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.42%E -3.81%K -5.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 09:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.81%E -2.98%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.42%E -3.81%K -5.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 09:50
Winamax (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -9.19%E -4.89%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -6.99%E -2.22%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-29 08:10
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -7.74%E -4.05%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -11.42%E -3.81%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 09:30
Winamax (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.74%EV -12.43%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.29%EV -10.15%E -5.46%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-29 08:10
Betr (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -13.54%E -3.47%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.32%EV -9.19%E -4.89%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -5.52%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-29 09:46
Sky Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -13.54%E -3.47%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.74%E -4.05%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -11.42%E -3.81%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-29 09:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -15.76%E -4.15%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -10.64%E -5.75%K -12.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-29 08:10
Neds🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -15.76%E -4.15%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -10.64%E -5.75%K -12.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-29 08:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -15.76%E -4.15%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -10.64%E -5.75%K -12.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-29 08:09
Coral🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -15.76%E -4.15%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -10.64%E -5.75%K -12.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-29 08:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.25%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-08-29 09:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.03%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%1.1%2026-08-29 09:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.03%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%1.1%2026-08-29 09:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.03%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%1.1%2026-08-29 09:50
Kalshi◎4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.02%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.44%2.0%2026-08-29 09:05
Smarkets◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.78%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.05%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.16%2.0%2026-08-29 09:55