The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tokyo Verdy v JEF United Chiba

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 06:00 UTC

Final: Tokyo Verdy 1–0 JEF United Chiba

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tokyo Verdy (Local)

Prediction 43.66%2.29fair odd
EV -4.83%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -4.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.57%43.58%43.74%44.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.112.132.1850.00%47.43%47.06%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

JEF United Chiba (Visit)

Prediction 27.02%3.70fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.299%
Kelly -0.412%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.42%27.03%26.92%27.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.393.403.6631.75%29.48%29.41%27.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.32%3.41fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -0.893%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.63%29.39%29.33%30.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.093.103.3133.33%32.34%32.26%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Verdy (Local): 43.66%; JEF United Chiba (Visit): 27.02%; Draw: 29.32%. For JEF United Chiba (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.66, with an expected value of -1.10%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.36%EV -4.83%E -2.21%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.42%EV -1.10%E -0.299%K -0.412%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.22%EV -2.95%E -0.893%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-18 05:45
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 05:05
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 04:40
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 04:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 04:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 04:40
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 05:05
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-18 04:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.93%EV -9.63%E -4.65%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-18 05:33
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -10.50%E -5.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.11%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-18 04:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.01%EV -10.50%E -5.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.64%EV -7.65%E -2.43%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-18 04:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -12.68%E -6.34%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.72%EV -14.88%E -4.72%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.63%EV -10.58%E -3.47%K -5.16%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-18 04:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 44.68%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.20%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.12%3.1%2026-04-18 05:05