Language:English
Tokyo Verdy v Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tokyo Verdy (Local)
Prediction 15.85%6.31fair odd
EV +10.96%
Edge +1.57%
Kelly +1.83%
Growth +0.200%
assuming max odds 7.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.59%15.82%15.93%16.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.255.836.007.0019.05%17.15%16.67%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit)
Prediction 60.67%1.65fair odd
EV -4.76%
Edge -3.03%
Kelly -8.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.49%60.61%60.58%62.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.521.511.5770.92%65.92%66.23%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.48%4.26fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.326%
Kelly -0.428%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.69%23.57%23.50%25.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.683.903.954.2027.17%25.67%25.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Verdy (Local): 15.85%; Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit): 60.67%; Draw: 23.48%. For Tokyo Verdy (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.31. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.96%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV +10.96%E +1.57%K +1.83%G +0.200% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.57%EV -4.76%E -3.03%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.84%EV -13.58%E -3.69%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-11 05:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.19%EV +3.04%E +0.467%K +0.552%G +0.017% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.75%EV -10.82%E -7.36%K -23.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-11 05:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.38I 15.67%NM 15.11%EV +1.13%E +0.178%K +0.211%G +0.002% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.39%EV -4.76%E -3.03%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -3.72%E -0.907%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-11 05:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.98%EV -0.927%E -0.148%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.61%EV -7.79%E -5.12%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-11 05:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.23%EV -3.30%E -0.542%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.54%EV -8.40%E -5.56%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 05:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.23%EV -3.30%E -0.542%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.54%EV -8.40%E -5.56%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 05:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.94%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.30%EV -5.36%E -3.44%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%EV -1.37%E -0.326%K -0.428%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-11 05:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.36%E -3.44%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.36%E -3.44%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.36%E -3.44%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.58%EV -5.97%E -3.85%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -7.24%E -1.83%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-11 05:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.58%E -4.27%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-11 05:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.58%E -4.27%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-11 05:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -9.00%E -6.00%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-11 05:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -9.00%E -6.00%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-11 05:21 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -9.61%E -6.45%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 05:21 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -9.61%E -6.45%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 05:21 |
| Casumo🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -9.61%E -6.45%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 05:21 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -9.61%E -6.45%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 05:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -9.61%E -6.45%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 05:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -9.61%E -6.45%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 05:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -9.61%E -6.45%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 05:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -10.22%E -6.90%K -21.28%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-11 05:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -9.00%E -6.00%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.76%E -2.83%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-11 05:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.01%EV -4.89%E -0.815%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.28%EV -10.82%E -7.36%K -23.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -10.76%E -2.83%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-11 05:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.66%EV -8.06%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.36%EV -10.22%E -6.90%K -21.28%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.99%EV -7.24%E -1.83%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-11 05:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.66%EV -8.06%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.36%EV -10.22%E -6.90%K -21.28%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.99%EV -7.24%E -1.83%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-11 05:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -8.85%E -1.54%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -4.76%E -3.03%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -10.76%E -2.83%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 05:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -8.85%E -1.54%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.80%EV -5.97%E -3.85%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.08%EV -9.59%E -2.49%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-11 05:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.11%EV -8.85%E -1.54%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.14%EV -6.58%E -4.27%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -8.42%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-11 05:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.00%EV -8.85%E -1.54%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.11%EV -7.18%E -4.69%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.89%EV -9.59%E -2.49%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-11 05:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.05%EV -9.65%E -1.69%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.19%EV -7.79%E -5.12%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -9.59%E -2.49%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-11 05:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.05%EV -9.65%E -1.69%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.19%EV -7.79%E -5.12%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -9.59%E -2.49%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-11 05:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.96%EV -11.23%E -2.01%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.39%EV -10.22%E -6.90%K -21.28%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 23.65%EV -11.23%E -2.97%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-11 05:41 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -12.82%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -4.76%E -3.03%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -13.11%E -3.54%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -12.82%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -4.76%E -3.03%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -13.11%E -3.54%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-11 05:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -12.82%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -4.76%E -3.03%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -13.11%E -3.54%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -12.82%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -4.76%E -3.03%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -13.11%E -3.54%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-11 05:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -12.82%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -7.18%E -4.69%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -11.94%E -3.18%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-11 05:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.49%EV -12.82%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.65%EV -7.79%E -5.12%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -10.76%E -2.83%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-11 05:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.71%EV -12.82%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 61.26%EV -14.46%E -10.26%K -35.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.03%EV -11.94%E -3.18%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-10-11 05:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.81%EV -14.40%E -2.67%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.50%EV -9.00%E -6.00%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-11 05:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.90%EV -15.99%E -3.02%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.13%EV -9.61%E -6.45%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.97%EV -8.42%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-11 05:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.89%EV -16.78%E -3.20%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.13%EV -9.00%E -6.00%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -13.11%E -3.54%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-11 05:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.89%EV -16.78%E -3.20%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.13%EV -9.00%E -6.00%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -13.11%E -3.54%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-11 05:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.89%EV -16.78%E -3.20%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.13%EV -9.00%E -6.00%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -13.11%E -3.54%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-11 05:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.89%EV -16.78%E -3.20%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.13%EV -9.00%E -6.00%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -13.11%E -3.54%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-11 05:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.50% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.02% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48% | 1.4% | 2026-10-11 05:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.50% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.02% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48% | 1.4% | 2026-10-11 05:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.50% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.02% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48% | 1.4% | 2026-10-11 05:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.50% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.02% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48% | 1.4% | 2026-10-11 05:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.72% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.74% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.54% | 1.9% | 2026-10-11 05:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.36% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.82% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82% | 2.4% | 2026-10-11 05:45 |