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Tokyo Verdy v FC Tokyo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tokyo Verdy (Local)
Prediction 22.56%4.43fair odd
EV +1.98%
Edge +0.437%
Kelly +0.561%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 4.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.40%22.67%22.51%24.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.034.004.5227.03%24.84%25.00%22.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Tokyo (Visit)
Prediction 47.53%2.10fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -3.92%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.66%47.39%47.52%48.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.811.931.912.0255.25%51.94%52.36%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.91%3.34fair odd
EV -4.28%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.45%29.94%29.97%31.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.063.103.2034.48%32.65%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Verdy (Local): 22.56%; FC Tokyo (Visit): 47.53%; Draw: 29.91%. For Tokyo Verdy (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.43. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.52, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.98%.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.40%EV +1.98%E +0.437%K +0.561%G +0.011% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.37%EV -4.95%E -2.47%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.23%EV -4.28%E -1.34%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-22 04:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -2.99%E -0.695%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -7.32%E -3.76%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.48%EV -8.47%E -2.77%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-22 04:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -5.24%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.95%E -2.47%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -5.78%E -1.83%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-22 04:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -5.24%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-22 04:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -5.24%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.80%EV -7.32%E -3.76%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -13.25%E -4.57%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-22 04:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -5.24%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.80%EV -7.32%E -3.76%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -13.25%E -4.57%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-22 04:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -5.24%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.80%EV -7.32%E -3.76%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -13.25%E -4.57%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-22 04:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -5.24%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.80%EV -7.32%E -3.76%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -13.25%E -4.57%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-22 04:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.58%EV -7.50%E -1.83%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.48%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -4.28%E -1.34%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-22 04:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.58%EV -7.50%E -1.83%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.48%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -4.28%E -1.34%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-22 04:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -8.63%E -2.13%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -7.32%E -3.76%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.47%EV -5.78%E -1.83%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-22 03:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -9.76%E -2.44%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -7.32%E -3.76%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -4.28%E -1.34%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 03:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.76%E -2.44%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -4.95%E -2.47%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-22 04:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -12.01%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -7.27%E -2.35%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-22 04:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -12.01%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -7.27%E -2.35%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-22 04:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -12.01%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -7.27%E -2.35%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-22 04:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -12.01%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -7.27%E -2.35%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-22 04:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%EV -13.14%E -3.41%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.91%EV -9.70%E -5.10%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.45%EV -4.28%E -1.34%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-22 03:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.83I 26.11%NM 22.95%EV -13.59%E -3.55%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.76%EV -12.55%E -6.82%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.29%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-22 04:43 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.91%EV -14.27%E -3.75%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.58%EV -13.03%E -7.12%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.51%EV -11.76%E -3.99%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-03-22 04:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.86%EV -14.27%E -3.75%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 47.99%EV -13.98%E -7.72%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 29.15%EV -10.86%E -3.64%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-03-22 04:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -15.40%E -4.11%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.66%EV -4.00%E -1.98%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.27%E -2.35%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-21 00:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.80%EV -16.52%E -4.47%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 47.34%EV -11.60%E -6.24%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.87%EV -8.77%E -2.87%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-03-22 03:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.33% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.52% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15% | 3.0% | 2026-03-22 04:49 |