The School of Odds
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Tokyo Verdy v Avispa Fukuoka

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 06:03 UTC

Final: Tokyo Verdy 3–1 Avispa Fukuoka

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tokyo Verdy (Local)

Prediction 30.80%3.25fair odd
EV -0.504%
Edge -0.156%
Kelly -0.226%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.34%30.78%30.85%32.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.013.003.2335.71%33.19%33.33%30.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Avispa Fukuoka (Visit)

Prediction 37.38%2.68fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -0.938%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.84%37.44%37.37%39.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.432.402.6144.44%41.18%41.67%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.82%3.14fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -0.859%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.57%31.79%31.78%32.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.902.903.0636.36%34.51%34.48%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Verdy (Local): 30.80%; Avispa Fukuoka (Visit): 37.38%; Draw: 31.82%. For Tokyo Verdy (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.25. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.23, with an expected value of -0.504%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 29.96%EV -0.504%E -0.156%K -0.226%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.36%EV -3.20%E -1.23%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.69%EV -5.81%E -1.96%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-24 05:59
LowVig.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.89%EV -1.43%E -0.446%K -0.649%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.36%EV -4.32%E -1.69%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.75%EV -7.08%E -2.43%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 05:59
BetOnline.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -2.97%E -0.942%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.00%EV -3.57%E -1.38%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.69%EV -7.08%E -2.43%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 06:00
BetAnything🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -2.97%E -0.942%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.00%EV -3.57%E -1.38%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.69%EV -7.08%E -2.43%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 05:59
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -2.97%E -0.942%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -11.05%E -4.64%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -4.54%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-19 06:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -2.97%E -0.942%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -11.05%E -4.64%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -4.54%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-19 06:05
BetRivers🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -2.97%E -0.942%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -12.17%E -5.18%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-19 06:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -2.97%E -0.942%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -12.17%E -5.18%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-19 06:04
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.78%EV -4.51%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.42%EV -4.69%E -1.84%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.80%EV -4.54%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 04:40
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.51%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -9.31%E -3.27%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 05:59
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.51%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -9.31%E -3.27%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 05:58
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -4.51%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -12.17%E -5.18%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 06:05
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -4.51%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -12.17%E -5.18%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 06:05
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -4.51%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -12.17%E -5.18%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 06:05
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -4.51%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -12.17%E -5.18%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 06:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -4.51%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -12.17%E -5.18%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 06:05
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -4.51%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -12.17%E -5.18%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 06:05
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -4.51%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -12.17%E -5.18%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 06:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -4.51%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.24%EV -13.29%E -5.73%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.39%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-19 06:05
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -4.51%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.24%EV -13.29%E -5.73%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.39%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-19 06:05
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -6.05%E -1.98%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -10.30%E -4.29%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -2.95%E -0.967%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 06:00
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -6.05%E -1.98%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 05:41
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -7.59%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 04:45
Marathon Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.00%EV -7.59%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.80%EV -8.06%E -3.27%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.20%EV -5.18%E -1.74%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 04:35
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -7.59%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 05:05
picklebet_au🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -7.59%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 06:00
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -7.59%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -6.56%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.31%E -3.27%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 04:50
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.59%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -8.43%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 05:35
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -7.59%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.43%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 05:59
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -7.59%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.43%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 05:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -7.59%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.43%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 05:59
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -7.59%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.43%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 06:00
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -7.59%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -10.30%E -4.29%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -12.49%E -4.54%K -7.14%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 06:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -7.59%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -10.30%E -4.29%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -12.49%E -4.54%K -7.14%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 06:00
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -7.59%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -15.90%E -7.07%K -12.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-19 06:05
Bet Right🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -9.13%E -3.09%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -8.43%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 04:40
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -9.13%E -3.09%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -8.43%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.96%EV -9.31%E -3.27%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 05:05
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -9.13%E -3.09%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -8.43%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.96%EV -9.31%E -3.27%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 05:05
1xBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.54%EV -10.05%E -3.44%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.41%EV -2.45%E -0.938%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.05%EV -2.63%E -0.859%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 05:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -10.67%E -3.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -8.43%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -6.13%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 05:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -10.67%E -3.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -10.30%E -4.29%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 04:40
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.10%EV -10.67%E -3.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.58%EV -10.30%E -4.29%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.32%EV -8.36%E -2.90%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 04:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -11.28%E -3.92%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -10.30%E -4.29%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -8.36%E -2.90%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 04:45
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -11.28%E -3.92%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -10.30%E -4.29%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -8.36%E -2.90%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 04:45
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.29%EV -11.59%E -4.04%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.42%EV -10.30%E -4.29%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.29%EV -8.68%E -3.02%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 04:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.29%EV -11.59%E -4.04%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.42%EV -10.30%E -4.29%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.29%EV -8.68%E -3.02%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 04:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.78%EV -12.21%E -4.28%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 37.66%EV -12.91%E -5.54%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 31.56%EV -11.54%E -4.15%K -6.48%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-24 05:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -13.75%E -4.91%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -4.69%E -1.84%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.52%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 05:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -13.75%E -4.91%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -10.30%E -4.29%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -7.72%E -2.66%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 05:05
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.48%EV -13.75%E -4.91%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.04%EV -11.05%E -4.64%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.48%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-24 04:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.08%EV -13.75%E -4.91%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.84%EV -14.04%E -6.10%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.08%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-24 06:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.63%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.66%1.1%2026-10-24 05:30
Matchbook◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.42%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.17%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.41%1.2%2026-10-24 06:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.85%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.31%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.84%1.5%2026-10-24 05:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.85%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.31%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.84%1.5%2026-10-24 05:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.68%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.67%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.65%2.1%2026-10-24 06:00
Smarkets◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.02%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.24%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.74%2.5%2026-10-24 06:00