The School of Odds
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Shimizu S Pulse v Nagoya Grampus

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shimizu S Pulse (Local)

Prediction 33.33%3.00fair odd
EV -5.35%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -2.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.51%33.23%33.35%35.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.732.782.8439.22%36.58%35.97%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nagoya Grampus (Visit)

Prediction 37.90%2.64fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.72%37.90%37.87%38.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.412.452.5344.44%41.41%40.82%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.78%3.48fair odd
EV -4.75%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.02%28.87%28.79%30.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.183.3133.33%31.69%31.45%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shimizu S Pulse (Local): 33.33%; Nagoya Grampus (Visit): 37.90%; Draw: 28.78%. For Nagoya Grampus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.53, with an expected value of -4.12%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.55%EV -5.35%E -1.88%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.66%EV -4.12%E -1.63%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.79%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 14:45
BetAnything🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.68%E -2.39%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -7.16%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-24 03:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -6.68%E -2.39%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.16%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-22 05:05
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -6.68%E -2.39%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.16%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 15:05
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -6.68%E -2.39%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -9.05%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-24 03:50
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.68%E -2.39%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.16%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -13.67%E -4.56%K -6.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 08:15
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.68%E -2.39%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.16%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -13.67%E -4.56%K -6.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 08:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.68%E -2.39%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.16%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -13.67%E -4.56%K -6.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 08:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.68%E -2.39%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.16%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -13.67%E -4.56%K -6.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 08:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.57%EV -7.35%E -2.64%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.63%EV -6.02%E -2.43%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.80%EV -6.77%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 08:14
NordicBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.30%EV -7.35%E -2.64%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.78%EV -7.16%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 14:10
Betsson🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.30%EV -7.35%E -2.64%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.78%EV -7.16%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 14:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 32.79%EV -7.68%E -2.77%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.65%EV -10.94%E -4.66%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.56%EV -8.49%E -2.67%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 05:05
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -8.35%E -3.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -7.16%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 12:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -8.35%E -3.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.96%EV -12.84%E -5.58%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -9.36%E -2.97%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-23 05:04
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -9.81%E -4.12%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-19 22:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.83%EV -11.68%E -4.41%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.15%EV -10.94%E -4.66%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-23 05:40
Neds🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.86%EV -12.35%E -4.69%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.42%EV -9.81%E -4.12%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-19 12:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.86%EV -12.35%E -4.69%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.42%EV -9.81%E -4.12%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-19 12:00
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -12.68%E -4.84%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -5.26%E -2.10%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 05:24
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.89%EV -12.68%E -4.84%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.47%EV -10.19%E -4.30%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-19 12:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.89%EV -12.68%E -4.84%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.47%EV -10.19%E -4.30%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-19 12:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.68%EV -15.01%E -5.89%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.17%EV -14.73%E -6.55%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.16%EV -12.23%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%16.4%2026-04-23 05:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 33.94%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.92%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%3.0%2026-04-24 00:35