The School of Odds
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Shimizu S Pulse v Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shimizu S Pulse (Local)

Prediction 23.44%4.27fair odd
EV -0.366%
Edge -0.086%
Kelly -0.113%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.37%23.48%23.46%24.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.893.904.2527.78%25.73%25.64%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit)

Prediction 48.62%2.06fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -4.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.63%48.75%48.62%51.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.871.901.9757.14%53.38%52.63%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.94%3.58fair odd
EV +3.38%
Edge +0.913%
Kelly +1.25%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.69%27.77%27.91%28.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.303.253.7031.75%30.30%30.77%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shimizu S Pulse (Local): 23.44%; Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit): 48.62%; Draw: 27.94%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.58. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%EV -0.366%E -0.086%K -0.113%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.94%EV -11.03%E -6.03%K -13.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV +3.38%E +0.913%K +1.25%G +0.042%5.2%2026-03-21 22:49
Betsson🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 22.99%EV -5.05%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.15%EV -11.52%E -6.33%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV +0.582%E +0.162%K +0.224%G +0.001%7.4%2026-03-21 07:30
Pinnacle🎯4.24I 23.58%NM 22.81%EV -0.600%E -0.142%K -0.185%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.08%EV -4.22%E -2.14%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.11%EV -3.89%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-22 03:45
DraftKings🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -6.23%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -5.20%E -2.66%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.01%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-22 03:50
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.23%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.01%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 03:54
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.23%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.84%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -6.40%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 03:54
Winamax (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.91%EV -9.57%E -5.15%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.15%EV -6.40%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-22 03:54
Marathon Bet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -7.40%E -1.87%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.31%EV -6.17%E -3.20%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.08%EV -7.24%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 03:55
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -7.40%E -1.87%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.62%EV -7.63%E -4.01%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 03:55
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -6.23%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -9.20%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 03:50
888sport🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -8.57%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.14%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -9.20%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-22 03:24
William Hill🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -8.57%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.14%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -9.20%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-22 03:24
888sport (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -8.57%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.14%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -9.20%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-22 03:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -8.57%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.14%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -9.20%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-22 03:25
Winamax (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -15.60%E -4.33%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 48.41%EV -11.52%E -6.33%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.11%EV -9.20%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-22 03:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.51%EV -13.26%E -3.58%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 49.72%EV -14.92%E -8.53%K -19.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.77%EV -9.20%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-22 03:40
BoyleSports🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -10.59%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-22 03:54
Neds🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.09%E -3.22%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -10.06%E -5.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -10.59%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-22 03:54
Coral🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.09%E -3.22%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -10.06%E -5.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -10.59%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-22 03:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.09%E -3.22%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -10.06%E -5.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -10.59%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-22 03:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.09%E -3.22%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -10.06%E -5.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -10.59%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-22 03:54
Betclic (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.40%EV -12.09%E -3.22%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.75%EV -12.49%E -6.94%K -15.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.86%EV -11.99%E -3.81%K -5.58%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-22 03:53
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.51%EV -13.26%E -3.58%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 48.87%EV -13.46%E -7.56%K -17.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.62%EV -11.99%E -3.81%K -5.58%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-22 03:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%3.0%2026-03-22 03:34