The School of Odds
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Shimizu S Pulse v Gamba Osaka

Kickoff: 2026-05-24 08:00 UTC

Final: Shimizu S Pulse 1–2 Gamba Osaka

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shimizu S Pulse (Local)

Prediction 36.30%2.75fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.738%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.12%36.28%36.33%37.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.532.502.7041.67%39.46%40.00%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gamba Osaka (Visit)

Prediction 33.86%2.95fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.502%
Kelly -0.765%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.06%33.95%33.88%35.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.672.702.9140.00%37.41%37.04%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.84%3.35fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.08%29.77%29.79%30.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.073.053.2333.33%32.60%32.79%30.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shimizu S Pulse (Local): 36.30%; Gamba Osaka (Visit): 33.86%; Draw: 29.84%. For Gamba Osaka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.91, with an expected value of -1.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -1.99%E -0.738%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -11.28%E -4.31%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -10.49%E -3.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-24 07:50
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -3.81%E -1.44%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -11.96%E -4.60%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.52%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-24 07:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.61%EV -4.90%E -1.87%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.30%EV -7.89%E -2.90%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-24 07:50
BetAnything🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.62%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -6.88%E -2.50%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -6.01%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-24 07:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -5.62%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -6.88%E -2.50%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-24 07:49
Pinnacle🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 37.15%EV -5.98%E -2.31%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.06%EV -1.46%E -0.502%K -0.765%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.79%EV -3.62%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-24 07:50
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.79%EV -6.35%E -2.46%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.94%EV -7.89%E -2.90%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.27%EV -8.99%E -2.95%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-24 07:50
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.79%EV -6.35%E -2.46%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.94%EV -7.89%E -2.90%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.27%EV -8.99%E -2.95%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-24 07:50
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.15%EV -7.44%E -2.92%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.24%EV -3.49%E -1.23%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -4.52%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 07:50
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -9.25%E -3.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -6.88%E -2.50%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-24 07:39
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -9.25%E -3.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -8.57%E -3.17%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-24 07:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -9.25%E -3.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -10.26%E -3.87%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-24 07:50
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.25%E -3.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.57%E -3.17%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.49%E -3.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-24 07:50
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.25%E -3.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.57%E -3.17%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.49%E -3.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-24 07:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.25%E -3.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.57%E -3.17%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.49%E -3.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-24 07:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -9.25%E -3.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -15.34%E -6.14%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -10.49%E -3.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-24 07:40
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -9.25%E -3.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -15.34%E -6.14%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -10.49%E -3.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-24 07:39
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -9.25%E -3.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -15.34%E -6.14%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -10.49%E -3.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-24 07:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -9.25%E -3.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -15.34%E -6.14%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -10.49%E -3.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-24 07:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.70%EV -9.98%E -4.02%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.46%EV -7.89%E -2.90%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -8.99%E -2.95%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-24 07:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -12.88%E -5.37%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -8.57%E -3.17%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.41%EV -8.99%E -2.95%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-24 07:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.48%EV -12.88%E -5.37%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.33%EV -13.65%E -5.35%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.18%EV -10.49%E -3.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-24 07:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.47%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-05-24 07:50
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.38%1.9%2026-05-24 07:50