The School of Odds
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Shimizu S Pulse v Fagiano Okayama

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shimizu S Pulse (Local)

Prediction 37.54%2.66fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.488%
Kelly -0.787%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.24%37.50%37.49%38.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.242.422.452.6344.64%41.26%40.82%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fagiano Okayama (Visit)

Prediction 33.02%3.03fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.20%33.04%33.18%34.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.772.802.9237.74%36.15%35.71%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.44%3.40fair odd
EV -4.90%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.37%29.46%29.34%30.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.083.023.2333.33%32.42%33.11%30.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shimizu S Pulse (Local): 37.54%; Fagiano Okayama (Visit): 33.02%; Draw: 29.44%. For Shimizu S Pulse (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.63, with an expected value of -1.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.83%EV -1.28%E -0.488%K -0.787%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.18%EV -3.57%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.99%EV -4.90%E -1.52%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-14 04:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.18%EV -5.79%E -2.31%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.10%EV -6.87%E -2.44%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.72%EV -7.55%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 04:49
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -6.16%E -2.46%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -5.88%E -2.06%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 04:20
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.16%E -2.46%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.53%E -2.69%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 02:25
BetAnything🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.16%E -2.46%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.53%E -2.69%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 04:40
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -6.16%E -2.46%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 04:35
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -6.16%E -2.46%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-14 04:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -4.89%E -1.70%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 04:20
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -7.53%E -2.69%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 04:19
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -7.53%E -2.69%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 04:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -7.53%E -2.69%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 04:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -7.53%E -2.69%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 04:30
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.07%EV -9.16%E -3.79%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.67%EV -6.87%E -2.44%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 04:20
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.07%EV -9.16%E -3.79%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.67%EV -6.87%E -2.44%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 04:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 02:24
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 02:24
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 02:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 02:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.63%EV -11.79%E -5.02%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.19%E -3.34%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 04:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.14%EV -13.67%E -5.94%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.10%EV -12.49%E -4.71%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.76%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-14 04:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 38.67%EV -14.80%E -6.52%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.27%EV -10.18%E -3.74%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.06%EV -11.09%E -3.67%K -5.49%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-14 04:33
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.71%EV -15.55%E -6.91%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-14 04:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 38.82%EV -15.92%E -7.11%K -12.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.20%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.98%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-14 04:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 37.54%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.60%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.86%4.1%2026-03-14 04:55