The School of Odds
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Shimizu S Pulse v Cerezo Osaka

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 04:00 UTC

Final: Shimizu S Pulse 1–1 Cerezo Osaka

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shimizu S Pulse (Local)

Prediction 35.71%2.80fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.56%35.76%35.68%37.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.572.602.7241.67%38.90%38.46%36.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cerezo Osaka (Visit)

Prediction 36.03%2.78fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.604%
Kelly -0.953%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.23%36.00%36.10%37.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.532.502.7341.67%39.60%40.00%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.27%3.54fair odd
EV -5.31%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.97%28.24%28.21%29.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.233.253.3532.26%31.00%30.77%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shimizu S Pulse (Local): 35.71%; Cerezo Osaka (Visit): 36.03%; Draw: 28.27%. For Cerezo Osaka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.73, with an expected value of -1.65%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.55%EV -2.88%E -1.06%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.42%EV -1.65%E -0.604%K -0.953%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.04%EV -5.87%E -1.76%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-06 03:50
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.58%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.33%E -2.44%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-06 03:05
BetAnything🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -6.33%E -2.44%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-06 03:50
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.18%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -8.13%E -3.19%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-06 03:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -5.61%E -2.14%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.79%EV -8.42%E -2.60%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-06 03:55
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.93%E -3.97%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-06 03:04
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.93%E -3.97%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-06 03:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.93%E -3.97%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-06 03:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.93%E -3.97%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-06 03:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -7.16%E -2.75%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -6.33%E -2.44%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-06 02:20
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -7.16%E -2.75%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -6.33%E -2.44%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.55%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 03:15
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -7.16%E -2.75%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -9.93%E -3.97%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-06 03:14
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.95%EV -7.88%E -3.05%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.95%EV -7.05%E -2.73%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-06 02:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.64%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.65%EV -10.66%E -4.30%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.71%EV -7.28%E -2.22%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-06 03:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.47%EV -13.54%E -5.64%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-06 03:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.41%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.41%EV -9.93%E -3.97%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 02:19
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.96%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.96%EV -9.93%E -3.97%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.55%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-06 03:04
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -11.74%E -4.79%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-06 03:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -11.74%E -4.79%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-06 03:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -11.74%E -4.79%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-06 03:50
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -11.74%E -4.79%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-06 03:50
Betsson🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.22%EV -11.45%E -4.62%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.23%EV -5.61%E -2.14%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 10:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.52%EV -14.30%E -5.96%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.52%EV -13.54%E -5.64%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-06 02:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.27%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.31%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-05-06 03:45