The School of Odds
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Shimizu S Pulse v Avispa Fukuoka

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 05:00 UTC

Final: Shimizu S Pulse 1–1 Avispa Fukuoka

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shimizu S Pulse (Local)

Prediction 42.02%2.38fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.41%41.91%42.16%43.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.202.3048.78%45.49%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Avispa Fukuoka (Visit)

Prediction 27.58%3.63fair odd
EV -0.440%
Edge -0.122%
Kelly -0.169%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.81%27.64%27.53%28.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.293.303.6132.26%30.38%30.30%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.40%3.29fair odd
EV -4.23%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.14%30.45%30.30%31.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.013.043.1534.48%33.17%32.89%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shimizu S Pulse (Local): 42.02%; Avispa Fukuoka (Visit): 27.58%; Draw: 30.40%. For Avispa Fukuoka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.61, with an expected value of -0.440%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -3.36%E -1.46%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -10.37%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.79%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 04:04
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.27%EV -3.78%E -1.65%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.81%EV -0.440%E -0.122%K -0.169%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.92%EV -4.84%E -1.55%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-10 04:05
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.26%EV -5.46%E -2.43%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -4.85%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.18%EV -4.23%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 02:59
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -5.46%E -2.43%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.83%E -4.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-10 04:05
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -5.46%E -2.43%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.83%E -4.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-10 04:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.20%EV -7.14%E -3.23%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.11%EV -5.13%E -1.49%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.68%EV -7.57%E -2.49%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-10 04:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.56%E -3.44%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -5.75%E -1.85%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 04:05
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.56%E -3.44%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.75%E -1.85%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-06 12:15
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.05%EV -7.56%E -3.44%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.33%EV -7.27%E -2.38%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-10 04:04
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.05%EV -7.56%E -3.44%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.33%EV -7.27%E -2.38%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-10 04:04
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.56%E -3.44%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -11.75%E -3.67%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -5.75%E -1.85%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-10 04:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.56%E -3.44%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.79%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-10 02:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.56%E -3.44%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.79%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-10 02:45
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.56%E -3.44%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -11.83%E -4.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 04:04
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -7.56%E -3.44%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -14.51%E -4.68%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -11.83%E -4.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-10 04:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -7.56%E -3.44%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -14.51%E -4.68%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -11.83%E -4.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-10 04:05
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -7.56%E -3.44%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -14.51%E -4.68%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -11.83%E -4.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-10 04:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -7.56%E -3.44%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -14.51%E -4.68%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -11.83%E -4.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-10 04:04
BetAnything🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.88%EV -9.24%E -4.28%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.75%E -1.85%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 17:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.70%EV -9.66%E -4.49%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.90%EV -6.66%E -2.17%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-10 04:03
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -9.66%E -4.49%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.37%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -5.75%E -1.85%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-10 04:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -11.76%E -5.60%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -7.27%E -2.38%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-10 04:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -13.86%E -6.76%K -13.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -14.51%E -4.68%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -8.79%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000%14.4%2026-05-10 04:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 42.76%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%3.0%2026-05-10 02:45