The School of Odds
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Nagoya Grampus v Vissel Kobe

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nagoya Grampus (Local)

Prediction 35.00%2.86fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -0.970%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.23%35.06%35.05%36.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.612.622.7840.82%38.33%38.17%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vissel Kobe (Visit)

Prediction 35.65%2.80fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.06%35.64%35.60%36.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.542.502.6941.67%39.35%40.00%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.35%3.41fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -0.775%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.48%29.30%29.36%29.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.083.053.3233.90%32.44%32.79%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nagoya Grampus (Local): 35.00%; Vissel Kobe (Visit): 35.65%; Draw: 29.35%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.41. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.32, with an expected value of -2.57%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.83%EV -2.70%E -0.970%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 36.00%EV -4.09%E -1.52%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.17%EV -2.57%E -0.775%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-14 04:50
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -3.75%E -1.36%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.09%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 04:49
BetAnything🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -5.50%E -2.04%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.09%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 04:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -5.50%E -2.04%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.59%EV -6.59%E -2.52%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.88%EV -8.44%E -2.71%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 04:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -7.25%E -2.73%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -5.52%E -2.08%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -7.56%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 04:40
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -7.25%E -2.73%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -6.09%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 04:19
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -8.30%E -3.17%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -6.09%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 04:54
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -8.30%E -3.17%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -6.59%E -2.52%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -9.03%E -2.91%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 04:39
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -8.30%E -3.17%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -6.59%E -2.52%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -9.03%E -2.91%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 04:35
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -8.30%E -3.17%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.87%E -4.35%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -11.96%E -3.99%K -5.98%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-14 04:50
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -8.30%E -3.17%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.87%E -4.35%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -11.96%E -3.99%K -5.98%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-14 04:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -8.30%E -3.17%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.87%E -4.35%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -11.96%E -3.99%K -5.98%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-14 04:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -8.30%E -3.17%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.87%E -4.35%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -11.96%E -3.99%K -5.98%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-14 04:50
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -9.00%E -3.46%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -10.87%E -4.35%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -11.96%E -3.99%K -5.98%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 04:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -9.00%E -3.46%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -10.87%E -4.35%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -11.96%E -3.99%K -5.98%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 04:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -9.00%E -3.46%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -10.87%E -4.35%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -11.96%E -3.99%K -5.98%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 04:20
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -9.00%E -3.46%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -10.87%E -4.35%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -11.96%E -3.99%K -5.98%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-14 04:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -10.75%E -4.21%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -9.09%E -3.56%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -7.56%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 04:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 34.79%EV -11.80%E -4.68%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.79%EV -12.65%E -5.16%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.42%EV -12.55%E -4.21%K -6.34%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-14 04:38
Unibet (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 34.53%EV -11.80%E -4.68%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.26%EV -14.43%E -6.01%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.20%EV -12.55%E -4.21%K -6.34%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-14 04:39
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -12.50%E -5.00%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -7.30%E -2.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -6.09%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-14 04:34
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.61%EV -12.50%E -5.00%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.05%EV -14.43%E -6.01%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.33%EV -13.43%E -4.55%K -6.89%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-14 04:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.67%EV -14.25%E -5.82%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.67%EV -12.65%E -5.16%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.65%EV -10.49%E -3.44%K -5.12%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-14 04:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.28%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.28%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45%2.0%2026-03-14 04:35