The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Nagoya Grampus v Kyoto Purple Sanga

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 07:00 UTC

Final: Nagoya Grampus 3–0 Kyoto Purple Sanga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nagoya Grampus (Local)

Prediction 46.08%2.17fair odd
EV +3.69%
Edge +1.64%
Kelly +2.95%
Growth +0.109%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.12%45.72%46.10%47.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.012.002.2552.63%49.72%50.00%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit)

Prediction 26.67%3.75fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -0.649%
Kelly -0.893%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.96%27.00%26.70%30.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.403.403.6633.33%29.43%29.41%27.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.24%3.67fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -0.689%
Kelly -0.956%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.36%27.28%27.20%28.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.343.303.5831.25%29.91%30.30%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nagoya Grampus (Local): 46.08%; Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit): 26.67%; Draw: 27.24%. For Nagoya Grampus (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV +3.69%E +1.64%K +2.95%G +0.109%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -19.98%E -6.66%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-07 11:40
BetAnything🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.30%EV -3.69%E -1.76%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -8.73%E -2.61%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 17:54
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.53%EV -4.15%E -1.99%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.44%EV -2.38%E -0.649%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.03%EV -2.47%E -0.689%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-10 04:05
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.01%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 22:29
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 01:30
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-10 04:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.20%EV -6.91%E -3.42%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -6.11%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.29%EV -6.83%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-10 04:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.83%EV -7.84%E -3.92%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -3.98%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.01%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 01:59
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.84%E -3.92%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-10 01:30
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.84%E -3.92%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-10 01:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.84%E -3.92%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-10 01:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.84%E -3.92%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-10 01:30
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -7.84%E -3.92%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-09 17:54
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -7.84%E -3.92%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -12.82%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-10 01:30
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -7.84%E -3.92%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -12.82%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-10 01:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -7.84%E -3.92%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -12.82%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-10 01:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -7.84%E -3.92%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -12.82%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-10 01:29
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.55%EV -8.76%E -4.42%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 01:59
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.55%EV -8.76%E -4.42%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 01:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.04%EV -10.14%E -5.20%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.98%EV -5.84%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-10 01:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.88%EV -10.60%E -5.46%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -6.01%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-10 01:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.32%EV -11.52%E -6.00%K -12.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-10 01:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.29%EV -12.44%E -6.55%K -13.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.06%EV -13.31%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.65%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-10 01:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.46%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.46%2.1%2026-05-10 03:05