The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Nagoya Grampus v Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nagoya Grampus (Local)

Prediction 28.04%3.57fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.30%28.03%28.11%28.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.033.273.253.4333.00%30.63%30.77%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit)

Prediction 46.83%2.14fair odd
EV -4.94%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -4.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.21%46.86%46.77%47.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.941.952.0354.05%51.43%51.28%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.13%3.98fair odd
EV +0.284%
Edge +0.071%
Kelly +0.095%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.22%25.11%25.11%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.603.603.9929.41%27.81%27.78%25.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nagoya Grampus (Local): 28.04%; Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit): 46.83%; Draw: 25.13%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.99, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.284%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 28.17%EV -3.84%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.61%EV -4.94%E -2.43%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.22%EV +0.284%E +0.071%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-18 09:50
DraftKings🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -6.08%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.10%EV -6.34%E -3.17%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-18 09:44
Marathon Bet🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 28.60%EV -8.60%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.86%EV -6.81%E -3.42%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-18 09:54
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.33%EV -6.34%E -3.17%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-18 09:55
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -8.68%E -4.45%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-18 09:44
Winamax (DE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.98%EV -9.15%E -4.72%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -8.26%E -2.26%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-18 09:45
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.34%E -3.17%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-18 09:44
BetAnything🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.34%E -3.17%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-18 08:35
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -6.08%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.71%EV -7.28%E -3.68%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-18 09:45
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -6.08%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.71%EV -7.28%E -3.68%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-18 09:44
888sport🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -8.68%E -4.45%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-18 09:50
William Hill🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -8.68%E -4.45%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-18 09:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -8.68%E -4.45%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-18 09:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -8.68%E -4.45%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-18 09:50
BoyleSports🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -8.68%E -4.45%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-18 09:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -10.55%E -5.53%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-18 09:45
Neds🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -10.55%E -5.53%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-18 09:44
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -10.55%E -5.53%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-18 09:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -10.55%E -5.53%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-18 09:44
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.29%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 46.65%EV -11.96%E -6.36%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-18 09:45
Betclic (FR)🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 28.52%EV -15.05%E -4.97%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 46.21%EV -12.43%E -6.65%K -14.28%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 25.27%EV -14.04%E -4.11%K -5.80%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-18 09:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 27.37%EV -10.85%E -3.41%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.04%EV -13.36%E -7.22%K -15.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.59%EV -14.54%E -4.28%K -6.06%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-18 09:49
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.62%EV -11.69%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 46.78%EV -12.90%E -6.93%K -15.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.59%EV -14.54%E -4.28%K -6.06%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-18 09:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-03-18 09:45