The School of Odds
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Nagoya Grampus v Gamba Osaka

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 05:00 UTC

Final: Nagoya Grampus 2–1 Gamba Osaka

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nagoya Grampus (Local)

Prediction 42.00%2.38fair odd
EV -0.042%
Edge -0.018%
Kelly -0.030%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.96%41.84%42.01%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.202.3848.78%45.69%45.45%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gamba Osaka (Visit)

Prediction 30.56%3.27fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -0.592%
Kelly -0.859%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.86%30.79%30.49%33.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.782.973.003.2135.97%33.66%33.33%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.44%3.64fair odd
EV -3.96%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.82%27.37%27.50%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.363.353.5030.77%29.77%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nagoya Grampus (Local): 42.00%; Gamba Osaka (Visit): 30.56%; Draw: 27.44%. For Nagoya Grampus (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.381. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.380, with an expected value of -0.042%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -0.042%E -0.018%K -0.030%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.36%EV -15.04%E -5.41%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-06 04:10
Pinnacle🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.10%EV -3.40%E -1.48%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.16%EV -1.90%E -0.592%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.74%EV -4.24%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-06 04:50
BetAnything🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.52%EV -4.24%E -1.86%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -6.79%E -2.23%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.44%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-06 04:55
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.05%EV -5.50%E -2.45%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -5.26%E -1.70%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 04:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.81%EV -6.34%E -2.84%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.27%EV -5.87%E -1.91%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.92%EV -8.35%E -2.50%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-06 04:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -6.79%E -2.23%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -3.96%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-06 03:40
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.26%E -1.70%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-06 04:19
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.32%E -2.77%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 04:39
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.32%E -2.77%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.82%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-06 04:40
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.32%E -2.77%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.82%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-06 04:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.32%E -2.77%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.82%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-06 04:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.32%E -2.77%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.82%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-06 04:40
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -11.98%E -4.16%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-06 04:30
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.40%EV -8.44%E -3.87%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.32%E -2.77%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -5.33%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 03:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.70%E -4.51%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.98%E -4.16%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-06 04:39
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.70%E -4.51%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.98%E -4.16%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-06 04:39
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.70%E -4.51%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -12.29%E -4.28%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.14%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-06 04:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.70%E -4.51%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -12.29%E -4.28%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.14%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-06 04:40
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -9.70%E -4.51%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -11.37%E -3.92%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -10.82%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-06 04:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.89%EV -10.96%E -5.17%K -9.79%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.52%EV -8.93%E -3.00%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.59%EV -6.16%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-06 04:33
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -11.80%E -5.62%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.32%E -2.77%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-06 04:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -11.80%E -5.62%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -11.37%E -3.92%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -3.96%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-06 03:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -13.90%E -6.78%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.23%EV -14.43%E -5.15%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.11%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-06 03:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 42.76%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%3.0%2026-05-06 04:30