The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Nagoya Grampus v FC Machida Zelvia

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 05:00 UTC

Final: Nagoya Grampus 2–2 FC Machida Zelvia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nagoya Grampus (Local)

Prediction 33.25%3.01fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -0.760%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.81%33.23%33.30%34.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.752.752.9438.46%36.34%36.36%34.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Machida Zelvia (Visit)

Prediction 36.34%2.75fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.05%36.39%36.29%37.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.512.502.6741.67%39.83%40.00%37.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.41%3.29fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.33%30.38%30.40%31.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.003.003.1634.48%33.35%33.33%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nagoya Grampus (Local): 33.25%; FC Machida Zelvia (Visit): 36.34%; Draw: 30.41%. For Nagoya Grampus (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.94, with an expected value of -2.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.89%EV -2.23%E -0.760%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.22%EV -2.98%E -1.12%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.89%EV -4.82%E -1.54%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-30 04:30
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -5.23%E -1.83%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.73%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-30 04:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -6.89%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.73%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-30 04:30
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -6.89%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -7.34%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -5.73%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-30 04:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -6.89%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.16%EV -8.79%E -3.50%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.52%EV -3.91%E -1.24%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-30 04:50
Betsson🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.46%EV -7.55%E -2.72%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.05%EV -6.25%E -2.42%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -7.25%E -2.38%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-30 04:29
NordicBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.46%EV -7.55%E -2.72%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.05%EV -6.25%E -2.42%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -7.25%E -2.38%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-30 04:29
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -8.55%E -3.11%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -5.73%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-30 03:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -8.55%E -3.11%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -10.97%E -4.48%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -8.77%E -2.92%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-30 04:40
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -8.55%E -3.11%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -11.81%E -4.07%K -6.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-30 04:30
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -8.55%E -3.11%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -11.81%E -4.07%K -6.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-30 04:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -8.55%E -3.11%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -11.81%E -4.07%K -6.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-30 04:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -8.55%E -3.11%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -11.81%E -4.07%K -6.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-30 04:20
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -8.55%E -3.11%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -11.81%E -4.07%K -6.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-30 04:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 33.28%EV -9.22%E -3.38%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -9.88%E -3.99%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.08%EV -8.17%E -2.70%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-30 04:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -10.22%E -3.78%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -10.97%E -4.48%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -11.81%E -4.07%K -6.22%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-30 04:09
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -10.22%E -3.78%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -10.97%E -4.48%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -11.81%E -4.07%K -6.22%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-30 04:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -10.22%E -3.78%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -10.97%E -4.48%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -11.81%E -4.07%K -6.22%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-30 04:10
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -10.22%E -3.78%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -10.97%E -4.48%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -11.81%E -4.07%K -6.22%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-30 04:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -11.88%E -4.48%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -5.73%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-30 04:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.73%EV -13.54%E -5.21%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.54%EV -12.79%E -5.33%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.73%EV -10.29%E -3.49%K -5.28%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-30 04:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 32.66%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.63%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72%1.1%2026-05-30 04:30