The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 10:03 UTC

Final: Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Cerezo Osaka

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nagoya Grampus (Local)

Prediction 42.08%2.38fair odd
EV +0.152%
Edge +0.064%
Kelly +0.110%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.00%42.13%42.12%44.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.222.222.3851.02%44.97%45.05%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cerezo Osaka (Visit)

Prediction 31.47%3.18fair odd
EV +0.071%
Edge +0.022%
Kelly +0.033%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.33%31.52%31.42%34.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.862.903.1839.22%34.98%34.48%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.45%3.78fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -0.504%
Kelly -0.690%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.27%26.35%26.46%27.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.463.503.7130.77%28.90%28.57%26.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nagoya Grampus (Local): 42.08%; Cerezo Osaka (Visit): 31.47%; Draw: 26.45%. For Nagoya Grampus (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.376. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.380, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.152%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV +0.152%E +0.064%K +0.110%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -15.03%E -5.57%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.10%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-21 09:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV +0.152%E +0.064%K +0.110%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -15.03%E -5.57%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.10%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-21 09:05
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -1.11%E -0.473%K -0.823%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -15.03%E -5.57%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 09:05
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -1.11%E -0.473%K -0.823%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -15.03%E -5.57%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 09:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -1.11%E -0.473%K -0.823%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -15.03%E -5.57%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 09:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -1.11%E -0.473%K -0.823%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -15.03%E -5.57%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 09:05
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -1.11%E -0.473%K -0.823%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -15.03%E -5.57%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 09:05
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -1.11%E -0.473%K -0.823%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -15.03%E -5.57%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 09:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -1.11%E -0.473%K -0.823%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -15.03%E -5.57%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 09:00
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -1.11%E -0.473%K -0.823%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -15.03%E -5.57%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 09:00
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -1.11%E -0.473%K -0.823%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -15.03%E -5.57%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 09:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.25%EV -2.37%E -1.02%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -16.61%E -6.27%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -8.75%E -2.54%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.25%EV -2.37%E -1.02%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -16.61%E -6.27%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -8.75%E -2.54%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.57%EV -3.21%E -1.40%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.87%EV -5.59%E -1.86%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -4.78%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-21 09:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.57%EV -3.21%E -1.40%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.87%EV -5.59%E -1.86%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -4.78%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-21 10:00
BetAnything🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.57%EV -3.21%E -1.40%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.87%EV -5.59%E -1.86%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -4.78%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-21 09:59
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.83%EV -4.48%E -1.97%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.34%EV -4.65%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.83%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 09:59
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.32%E -2.36%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.59%E -1.86%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.78%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-21 09:05
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.32%E -2.36%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.59%E -1.86%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.78%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-21 09:59
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -5.32%E -2.36%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-21 09:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -5.32%E -2.36%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -8.74%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-21 10:00
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -5.32%E -2.36%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -8.74%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 08:39
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -5.32%E -2.36%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.74%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-21 10:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.00%EV -5.32%E -2.36%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.41%EV -19.75%E -7.75%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.59%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.53%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-21 09:05
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.54%EV -6.58%E -2.96%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.40%EV +0.071%E +0.022%K +0.033%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.06%EV -1.87%E -0.504%K -0.690%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-21 09:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -6.58%E -2.96%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.41%EV -6.85%E -2.31%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.71%EV -7.95%E -2.29%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-21 08:35
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.59%E -1.86%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -4.78%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 09:59
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -4.02%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-21 10:00
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-21 08:18
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -8.74%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-21 09:05
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -8.74%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-21 10:00
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -8.74%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-21 10:00
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.74%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-21 08:35
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.74%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-21 08:35
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.74%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.53%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-21 09:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.74%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.53%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-21 09:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.74%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.53%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-21 09:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.22%EV -9.53%E -4.43%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -10.31%E -3.62%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-21 09:09
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.53%E -4.43%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -9.37%E -3.25%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.53%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-21 08:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.53%E -4.43%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -9.37%E -3.25%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.53%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-21 08:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.53%E -4.43%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -9.68%E -3.37%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.14%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-21 08:20
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.53%E -4.43%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -9.68%E -3.37%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.14%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-21 08:20
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -9.53%E -4.43%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -9.37%E -3.25%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -14.04%E -4.32%K -6.24%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-21 09:35
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -11.63%E -5.54%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.74%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-21 10:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -11.63%E -5.54%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.74%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-21 10:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.14%EV -12.47%E -6.00%K -11.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.30%EV -11.89%E -4.25%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.53%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-21 09:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -13.73%E -6.70%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -5.59%E -1.86%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -4.78%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-21 09:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.78%EV -13.73%E -6.70%K -13.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -8.74%E -3.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.28%EV -6.10%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-21 10:00
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -13.73%E -6.70%K -13.08%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -9.37%E -3.25%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-21 10:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.59%EV -15.84%E -7.92%K -15.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.14%EV -11.89%E -4.25%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.27%EV -8.75%E -2.54%K -3.57%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-21 10:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 43.59%EV -17.52%E -8.94%K -18.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.52%EV -11.89%E -4.25%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.89%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.53%G +0.000%17.0%2026-10-21 09:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.61%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.01%1.2%2026-10-21 10:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.61%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.01%1.2%2026-10-21 10:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.04%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.23%1.7%2026-10-21 10:00
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 41.95%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.89%1.9%2026-10-21 10:00
Matchbook◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.67%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.17%1.9%2026-10-21 10:00
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.08%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-10-21 10:00