The School of Odds
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Nagoya Grampus v Avispa Fukuoka

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 07:00 UTC

Final: Nagoya Grampus 2–2 Avispa Fukuoka

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nagoya Grampus (Local)

Prediction 54.01%1.85fair odd
EV -4.95%
Edge -2.81%
Kelly -6.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.59%53.99%54.09%54.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.711.701.7660.98%58.60%58.82%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Avispa Fukuoka (Visit)

Prediction 19.84%5.04fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.362%
Kelly -0.453%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.10%19.84%19.88%21.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.624.654.9523.26%21.66%21.51%20.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.15%3.82fair odd
EV -0.885%
Edge -0.234%
Kelly -0.317%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.49%26.18%26.03%27.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.473.453.7930.30%28.86%28.99%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nagoya Grampus (Local): 54.01%; Avispa Fukuoka (Visit): 19.84%; Draw: 26.15%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.79, with an expected value of -0.885%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.88%EV -4.95%E -2.81%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.63%EV -2.39%E -0.485%K -0.609%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.49%EV -0.885%E -0.234%K -0.317%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-19 06:55
BetAnything🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.36%EV -5.49%E -3.13%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.22%EV -1.79%E -0.362%K -0.453%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.85%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-19 06:55
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.14%EV -6.03%E -3.46%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.04%EV -6.75%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.55%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-19 06:55
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.66%EV -6.03%E -3.46%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -5.76%E -1.21%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 06:01
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.57%E -3.80%K -8.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -10.72%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -5.85%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 05:55
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.57%E -3.80%K -8.99%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -14.09%E -3.25%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 06:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.20%EV -7.11%E -4.13%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.05%EV -7.74%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.75%EV -5.33%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 06:55
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.74%EV -7.11%E -4.13%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -5.76%E -1.21%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -9.78%E -2.83%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 06:55
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.74%EV -7.11%E -4.13%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -5.76%E -1.21%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -9.78%E -2.83%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 06:55
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -8.19%E -4.82%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -4.77%E -0.993%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 06:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -8.19%E -4.82%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -4.77%E -0.993%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 06:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -8.19%E -4.82%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -4.77%E -0.993%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 06:55
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.49%EV -8.19%E -4.82%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV -8.73%E -1.90%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 06:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.59%EV -8.19%E -4.82%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -12.70%E -2.89%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -13.70%E -4.15%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-19 05:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.59%EV -8.19%E -4.82%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -12.70%E -2.89%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -13.70%E -4.15%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-19 05:45
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.59%EV -8.19%E -4.82%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -12.70%E -2.89%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -13.70%E -4.15%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-19 05:45
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.59%EV -8.19%E -4.82%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -12.70%E -2.89%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -13.70%E -4.15%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-19 05:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.15%EV -9.27%E -5.52%K -13.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -10.72%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -7.16%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 06:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.13%EV -9.27%E -5.52%K -13.63%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.35%EV -6.75%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.51%EV -10.30%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 06:51
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.11%EV -9.81%E -5.87%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -10.72%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-19 06:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.40%EV -10.35%E -6.23%K -15.68%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.42%EV -7.74%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -9.78%E -2.83%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-19 06:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.45%EV -11.43%E -6.97%K -17.85%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.39%EV -14.69%E -3.42%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.17%EV -12.39%E -3.70%K -5.27%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-19 06:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.94%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.58%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.48%2.1%2026-04-19 05:50